Matsuzaka in the Fold: Now What?

OK, so after a week or so of tension, of Red Sox Nation collectively holding its breath, of crashing Sons of Sam Horn and giving millions of hits to a website that tracked the plane carrying our new savior from SoCal to eastern Mass, Daisuke (it's pronounced Dice-K, so his first name has become his nickname -- I sort of wish the rush to impose a nickname would slow so the process could happen organically) Matsuzaka is in the fold. After all of the speculation, Matsuzaka signed for a very favorable $52 million, though the Annual Average Value (AAV), taking into account the posting bid, is still a healthy$17.2 million per annum. We will know more once he passes the physical and we hear about incentives, escalator clauses and the like. But having him in the fold for six years at an acceptable salary is certainly good news.

The Sox pitching staff looks like it could be fantastic, but there are ample question marks. Schilling and Wakefield are elder statesmen, with Schilling indicating that this year will be his last. Beckett should adjust after a year in the tougher (for pitchers, certainly) American League but last year's performance was hardly that of an ace and former World series MVP. Lester is recovering from cancer, and while he hopes to be at spring training on time for pitchers and catchers reporting (February 16 for all of you keeping track) I think we need to give him some time, and even if healthy, Lester is young and will have growing pains. Papelbon was the season's revelation last year, but that season ended with him on the sidelines with a shoulder injury, which is always cause for concern. Now he is going to make the transition from closer to starter. Let's not burden him with expectations of greatness yet.

And then there is Matsuzaka. There is a reason why the Sox placed a $51.1 million bid on him. Every scout who is on the record is loopy for this guy. Even if rumors of the gyro ball are greatly exaggerated, Matsuzaka is supposed to be something special. Certainly his MVP performance in carrying Japan to victory in the World Baseball Classic reaffirmed all of the whispering. And his stats in the Japanese league show a young man who began good and has improved every season. But how will he adjust to the Major Leagues? How will he adjust to the longer season and the much more extensive travel and the circus that is the Boston media, a circus whose tents are about to expand with dozens of Japanese media members? What if he stumbles coming out of the gate? What if he has health issues? There are lots of questions that we will only answer once we get him to Fort Myers and to Fenway and once he gets going with what we hope will be a long and successful career.

Mathemeticians in the audience will note that I have listed six starting pitchers. There have been two recent seasons when the Sox entered the year with fans worrying about too many starters. How would we be able to integrate six starters into five spots? Those years were 2004 and 2006. And in both seasons even six starters proved not to be sufficient. As far as I am concerned we still do not have enough starting pitching. I hope we reach out to Roger Clemens and at least make a phone call to Boras to see what he might have to say about Zito. Seven starters will end up, at some point in the season, being four. Someone will go on the shelf. Someone will have the dreaded "personal issues." Someone will not work out. Someone will slump. Stickpile starters. The rest will evolve naturally.

But while looking for more top-of-the-rotation guys, the Sox need to start zoning in on closers. I do not think a big name is important. In fact, I tend to think the closing role is overrated -- I buy into the theory of Bill James that high leverage situations can crop up in any inning late in the game. That your "closer" might be best served coming out of the pen in the 7th, with someone else pitching the last inning of the game. But this is an idea whose time has not yet come, and the closer-by-committee had its hearing in early 2003 and failed, though I might point out that it was the personnel that failed more than the idea itself.

The Hot Stove is still cooking. Pitchers and catchers arrive in Fort Myers in about 55 days.