Obama '08?

According to the Washington Post Barack Obama will announce his intentions for 2008 sometime after the November elections. Pundits will parse his inexperience and try to guage what a defeat might do to his career, but here is the reality: The Democrats are going to win these midterm elections. They may not be able to wrestle the House or Senate from the GOP, but they could, and in any case, it may not matter. 2008 is going to represent a fantastic opportunity for the Democrats. It is hard to imagine that the administration is going to develop a sense of accountability or competence in its last two years, and at the presidential level it is hard to envision Bush bequeathing a strong party legacy. So if 2008 is going to represent a pickable plum, shouldn't most any viable Democrat want to head to the orchard? If the 2008 train passes, when is the next time one will be scheduled to arrive? If another Democrat wins in 2008, which seems a good possibility, Obama either has to tie his fortunes to the Vce presidency, always a risky gamble, or he has to wait four years (if things go awry, which makes another Democrat winning unfathomable) or 2016, a ten year period in which much can change.

In short, there are lots of reasons for Obama to run, and relatively few reasons why he should not. I would expect that announcement to come sometime in December. Then we all have some twenty-one months of Campaign '08 to relish. At least that will also correspond to twenty-one months of The Daily Show's "Indecision '08" coverage as well, which will surpass in quality anything we'll see in the 24-hour news cycle.