My guess is that he will be allowed to return to the party, but that the deputy presidency is a nonstarter. He will work to claw his way back, and because he has significant support, he will be reasonably successful, but I highly doubt whether he will be able to re-enter the rarefied air that had him one step removed from succession. Those days are gone. Zuma's decision will be whether to be a good soldier, or instead to play the populism card and be a burr within the party, or to leave and pose a challenge from without.
I feel a little bit like the old Gilda Radner Saturday Night Live Character Rosanne Rosannadanna: Never Mind.
According to an article in this morning's New York Times, Zuma has already returned to the ANC as Deputy president of the party. That does not mean that he is or will be deputy President of the country again, and as the article notes:
Whether he can regain his old standing, however, seems in serious question. Mr. Zuma faces a second trial as early as July on corruption charges related to what prosecutors say was a bribery scheme involving a contract for South African naval vessels. Mr. Mbeki forced Mr. Zuma to resign as South Africa's deputy president last June because of the scandal, and Mr. Zuma's financial adviser has already been convicted on charges that included funneling payments to Mr. Zuma.
Nonetheless, Zuma is back, and he will surely resume his role as a major player in South African politics, even if his future in electoral politics is in question. Behind the scenes he will still be able to marshal tremendous resources. I am shoocked in particular by the speed with which the ANC allowed Zuma back into the fold. But from here on out I will be disinclined to bet against him.
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