Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Republicans: Uh Oh

It may not be a perfect rule of thumb, but I think it is pretty safe to say that when the Republicans have lost the Boston Globe's Jeff Jacoby, there is trouble brewing. It has long been clear that the administration is incompetent. But the trickle-down effect appears to be almost certain to swallow Congress. Whether the aftereffects will be enough to give the Democrats control of either the House or the Senate remains to be seen -- a cornered Karl Rove is a dangerous Karl Rove -- but at least for the administration, the implications are obvious: lame duck status is here, and Bush and company will be highly unlikely to be able to rely on a whole lot of support from self-preservationist Republicans.

Were I to make a prediction, I would say that the GOP will see a short-term revival of strength from religious conservatives who will misread the temper of the electorate and will proclaim that it was their forsaking the party (which I will guess at least some will do) that led to the GOP plummet. This will be inaccurate, but may put the party ina state of chaos for some time.

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