Jacob Zuma's Future in the ANC

Today's New York Times editorial page rightfully excoriates the behavior of Jacob Zuma, the former South African deputy president who was acquitted of rape charges on Monday. As the editors argue, "during the trial he admitted to behavior so irresponsible that his future political activity deserves to be limited to voting."

The question remains: Will this be the case? Will Zuma be relegated to the role of political observer? The Mail & Guardian indicates that Zuma's return to the ANC is not just a formality.certainly his ability to return as deputy president has been compromised. Zuma was caught up in several corruption scandals as well, and indications are that the rape charges were simply the last straw, and not the whole reason, for Mbeki and his cohort giving Zuma the gentle push from the ANC fold. Zuma has been sending mixed messages for the last couple of days about whether he believes the party will welcome him back.

My guess is that he will be allowed to return to the party, but that the deputy presidency is a nonstarter. He will work to claw his way back, and because he has significant support, he will be reasonably successful, but I highly doubt whether he will be able to re-enter the rarefied air that had him one step removed from succession. Those days are gone. Zuma's decision will be whether to be a good soldier, or instead to play the populism card and be a burr within the party, or to leave and pose a challenge from without.