Monday, July 23, 2007

Dirty Water: Sox Talk With the Thunderstick

Thunderstick: Clearly there is one story overshadowing all else this week for the Sox and that's the return of Jon Lester tonight after a year-long trek back from first being diagnosed with cancer right about this time last year. While people across the country have developed strong feelings about the Red Sox over the past five years (both positive and negative), I'm sure everyone will be rooting for the kid tonight (except for Yankees fans who are heartless and cold). It'll be great to see him take the mound.


That said, what can we expect from Lester? I have no idea. He's had some very nice starts in Pawtucket but he's also had some that haven't instilled a lot of confidence. So we'll see tonight. My gut tells me that this is a 10 day trial for Lester. Gabbard has certainly done plenty since coming up from AAA, particularly in the last couple weeks, to warrant a spot in the rotation. Schilling had what has been described as a solid to spectacular rehab start over the weekend so I think we can expect to see him soon. So I'm guessing that the next 10 days and presumably 2 starts will help give us an idea of where Lester fits in for the remainder of the season. Is he a viable alternative if Gabbard stumbles or another injury befalls the team? Or is he just not quite all the way back and thus will be sent back down to AAA for the rest of the season to get more work in before presumably making a full comeback next year?


He doesn't get a patsie to start things off as he takes on the Cleveland Indians. The Sox have only played the Tribe once this year and I loved what I saw out of that team--good in almost every facet of the game and they have a gritty attitude. They look primed to be the latest incarnation of a potential champion to fall short in the postseason and break the hearts of many Ohio residents (and maybe it was just slow to get up here and everyone's heard it but I heard someone this weekend refer to going to the
bathroom as "taking the Cleveland Browns to the Super Bowl"--that killed me for some reason--I'll never be able to watch another Browns game again without picturing 11 little Mr. Hanky like turds running around the field).


To say the Sox have been playing mediocre baseball lately is an insult to all things mediocre (like Grey's Anatomy). They've been playing .500 ball for so long, it's hard to remember the feelings I had early in the season where if they scored 5+ runs you knew it was a win. But they do enter coming off of 3 wins against the ChiSox. So hopefully the runs continue to come these next four days. A quick glance at the Sox schedule the next two months sees a ton of games against Baltimore, Toronto and TB so while I still think it is unlikely that the Yanks can make up the 7.5 games they are behind, it is these 4 game stretches that will make things interesting. The Yanks have four with KC while the Sox take on Cleveland and while a 3-1 (or possibly 2-2) run through these games should keep the Sox handily in front, a 1-3 series opens up a door for the Yanks to get this down to a managable deficit with two months left in the season. So the Sox need to buck up here eventually and start playing closer to what they played like at the beginning of the year. Tonight would be as good a time as any to start that.


dcat:: The Red Sox in the last week have reminded me a bit of a boxer. They had a pretty marginal round, but in the end they finished off with a flurry of blows and landed a couple of big shots so they probably won the round. but realistically they went 4-3 last week, and if you add that to the series split against Toronto they have been 6-5. Hardly inspiring stuff. Now they get to face a Cleveland team that is something like 20 games above .500 in the Jake and that, Like you, I find to be a sound team that has postseason aspirations. Meanwhile I'm sure the Cleveland fans in the audience (Tom, Donnie Baseball) are going to love the "Taking the Cleveland Browns to the Super Bowl" line.


I'm going to propose a couple of options for the pitching rotation that will seem completely unorthodox, which does not make them either right or wrong. Obviously Lester's return is the driving force for a reconsideration of the staff:


The first possibility is a six-man rotation through August and into September. As long as we have them, why not give guys an extra days rest. We know that Dice-K is used to one more day from his japan days. Schilling certainly could be eased in when he returns. I cannot imagine an extra day hurting the other guys. Naturally when off days come we skip someone's turn to keep the rest days sacred (and not too extended) for the upper-echelon guys, and as we get a sense of who is pitching well, who is faltering, who is simply not up to snuff, we head toward september and pick a five-man rotation that is likely to become a four-plus rotation in October. It's unorthodox, but not too much so, especially with injury/wear-and-tear concerns for half the staff.


The second option might keep a five-man rotation but would do something equally unorthodox: Why not just start looking at Tavarez, assuming he even remains in the rotation, as a three-inning guy. We've all seen the numbers. First time through the lineup he is strong. second time around, they start feeling him out. By the third time around, he is a batting practice pitcher. Now the obvious answer is to get him in the role of long reliever, but we have seen that he does best when he is on a set routine. Why not look at him as a three-inning guy? And why not then have Lester be the next three inning guy? Why, in other words, not prepare for starter-by-committee from the five slot? It may be unworkable, but surely they are reaching a point where they have a short leash with tavarez anyway -- why not simply formalize that approach?


We desperately need a week when we reel off five or six wins. It's hard to envision a seven-game road trip providing that option, even if the last three are against Tampa. But the bats are beginning to come around, and if that continues, I like to think that we'll play better than we have, even though hope sort of flies in the face of lived experience for the last two months.

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