Dirty Water: Sox Talk With the Thunderstick

You want it. You need it. You crave it. You haven't gotten it in a while. I am talking, of course, about "Dirty Water," our heretofore regular feature in which the Thunderstick and I assess the state of the Red Sox. Without further frustration:

Thunderstick: Nice to see you back from your honeymoon, DCat, and ready to get back to focusing on the important things in life, such as baseball. For the better part of the last month you were galavanting around the Pacific Northwest and Canada as I continuously reloaded the dcat blog every 2-4 minutes, praying for a new entry. Despite reading reviews of Ryan Adam's new album in Rolling Stone, Spin, Blender, Entertainment Weekly, the Boston Globe, USA Today and the New York Times, I just couldn't pull the trigger and buy it until I got a dcat certified thumbs up. Thank god the dcatblog is up and running with regular posts so my life has direction again.

Today marks the official halfway point in the Red Sox season as they stand at 50-31 so it seems like a great time to take stock of where we are. What has the first half of the season told us? Barring catastrophic injury the Sox are going to win the AL East if only because the rest of the AL East teams suck, especially the Yanks.

As a (lengthy) aside, I see one positive sign for the Yanks long term prospects right now--after 3+ seasons of hearing about how ARod has not been embraced by Yanks fans despite the fact that he could very likely win his second MVP award in pinstripes this year, things seem about ready to turn around for ARod in NY. ARod's wife recently attended a Yanks game with a shirt adorned with profanity of the most vile kind. ARod's wife was clearly trying to show she, and consequently her husband, could fit in in NY by showing that they could be just as low-class as your typical Yankees fan. While there was much outrage from national media outlets and baseball fans from around the country, I imagine the typical Yankee fan walked by her at the stadium, pointed at her, smiled and said "nice shirt" all the while thinking "where can I get one of those?" I'm willing to bet that the next time we see ARod slipping into a strip club with his mistress on a road trip, he'll be wearing a "Fire Isaiah" t-shirt to show he really is a New Yorker. After that we'll just be one more blown double play by Jeter (and at the rate he is going that'll come by Thurs) and Yanks fans will be screaming for ARod to take over at short and as captain of the team.

Back to the Sox though--I think the easiest way to sum up the state at the midway point is to note that they are 50-31, but to also note that they were 19 games over .500 for the first time on May 27th. That tells you all you need to know. They are on pace halfway through to win 100 games, but if they continue to play like they have recently, than a 90-91 win season is what they will end up with. The last month has been very reminiscent of 2002 I believe it was when the Sox got out to a 40-17 start, only to play .500 ball the rest of the way and miss the playoffs. Fortunately this time around, there doesn't seem to be an AL East team to overtake them if they do this like the Yanks did that year. For the Yanks to do that, they'd need to go 54-29 and this Yanks team doesn't look like they'll be able to do that. The bottom line is that this Sox team has the pitching and enough other talent to win 100+ games (even during this recent stretch of .500 play, the pitching has been very good most nights with only a few clunker starts thrown in). However, if they continue to play at their current level, they will be a 90 win team and while that will likely make the playoffs in the AL East this year, it doesn't endear a lot of confidence in the average Sox fan to make us think that they will do much damage when they get there. This month features a lot of home games against a lot of bad teams and in fact 18 or their remaining 81 games (just over 22%) are against Tampa so there should be a lot of easy Ws left on the schedule. They need to start accumulating them tonight. And if they don't, well Mrs. ARod's t-shirt will pretty well summarize my attitude towards the Sox.

dcat: It’s good to be back and to read your insightful commentary, Mr. Stick. And I’m glad my review of Ryan Adams pushed you over the edge. Given that the recent news of the Spice Girls possibly getting back together made the Thunderstick tumescent I figured something needed to prod you toward good music.

I’m not going to kid you – the prevailing emotion for me when it comes to the Sox is frustration. I was at two of the games in seattle last week, the 8-6 slugfest on Tuesday and the extra-innings pitching duel on Wednesday, and almost every inning they left guys on base, failed to do the little things, and just generally gave games away. The same can be said for this weekend against the Rangers, a team against which we should never be happy to salvage a four game split.

Seeing the .500 play since late May reveals just how even the best teams experience palpitations over the course of a baseball season. But we are starting to deal with injuries – Schill being the biggest but not sole example. We are starting to see which guys might not work out – Lugo? – and which guys are hitting a rhythm, such as Pedroia. I have to admit, I’m beginning to worry a little bit about the (relative) underperformance of Big Papi and Manny, even though their numbers are hardly bad. Those two have provided a historically great 3-4 punch for more than three years now, but we need them to start stepping up again.

At the same time, we are in a great position because the East is mediocre (hey, for a long, long time it was the toughest division in baseball; I hardly feel as if I need to apologize for the AL East) and we have that most important of commodities: A big lead. We also still have a pitching staff that gives us a leg up on every other team in the American League. Like you, I’ve no doubt that we are going to win the east. But I am actually a bit concerned about our prospects ion a short series. An inability to drive guys in, leaving a dozen or more stranded per game, is bad in June. It is deadly in October.

July marks the midway point. It also marks the trade deadline. As frustrated as I have been in the last few weeks, I cannot pinpoint any specific needs. We could use a little bit of bullpen depth. Another bat would be nice as long as it is not someone who comes in expecting to start. But on the whole, the problems we have, or that we might have, should be ones that we address internally. This team needs to play to its potential. If the guys do that, we are a postseason force. If not, it could be another frustrating fall after the glories of 2004.

Oh, and yes, Yankee fans suck.