Thunderstick: So we're back from the three painfully boring days known as the All-Star break. I watched exactly zero minutes of the Home Run Derby and about 5 outs (all involving Red Sox players) of the actual game. But we should point out that there was one important outcome and that is if the Sox get to the World Series, they'll have home field advantage. God bless this all-star idea of having the winning league get home field for the fall classic--at least until we reach the cyclic portion where the NL is better than the AL, but that looks to be 5-10 years away at best.
I'll keep it short about the Sox--they were 13-14 in June and they've been playing .500 ball for the better part of 6 weeks. I don't know if the Yanks have enough to make a run if we play .500 ball for the rest of the season, but I'd prefer not to chance it. Schilling's hurt. Guys in the pen are hurt. Ortiz now appears to be more hurt than we first thought. Tough. Nobody cried for the Yanks early in the season when they had their injuries (in fact, I'd say there was much more laughter and celebration amongst the baseball community), so nobody is going to cry for us. We are where we because of good pitching and guys like Lowell and Youk stepping up. Beckett's been great. Dice has been more than encouraging. Pap and Okie are holding down the pen. To me, it's time for Manny, Ortiz, Drew and Lugo (yes, I said Lugo--at $9 million per and with his numbers from previous years), to step up and carry this team for 3-6 weeks. I feel good if the Sox get to the postseason that they'll have a great chance with their pitching. But all teams need their big guns to carry them for a part of the season by mashing out some runs. We've been mediocre for a while now with other guys playing well. It's time for the big $$$$ guys to take us home here the next month. Do that and we'll be fine. Don't do it and the door is open (whether the Yanks can walk through it is another question).
dcat: The All Star Break marks one of the real down times on the sports calendar. The week after the Super Bowl certainly qualifies, as does the week before conference tournaments start in March. So like you, I cannot wait to see real baseball start up again. Of course LaRussa should have pinch hit Pujols, but that just goes to show that LaRussa’s reputation for being a genius might be the most overstated attributed trait in the entire sporting firmament. In any case, thank God he didn’t, just in case everything works out and we get a tight World Series and the Sox are in it and it goes seven games.
I figure I’ll go with a gimmick for the rest of this. Let’s try grading the constituent parts: offense, starting pitching, relief, fielding, coaching, management, and overall with a few additional comments at the end. These grades are not only based on some absolute standard, but also on expectations – how are they doing relative to how they should be doing?
Offense: We’ve made all of the lamentations. We are on a pace to score far less than we have in previous years. At the same time, what people seem to overlook is that the Red Sox from 2003-2005 (and much of 2006) were not only great offensive teams, they were historically great offensive teams. And so inevitably this team, with clear holes and some fairly substantial underachievement, inevitably pales in comparison at the plate. But keep in mind that the Sox are also on pace to give up some 100 fewer runs than in any of the seasons when they put up 900+ runs. And as you’ve said, some guys need to start pushing upward toward their mean, in particular Manny and Big Papi. Other guys need to step it up, like Lugo and Drew. Still others we hope will maintain what they have done in the first half – Lowell and Youks, for example. My concern is not even the run scoring per se, but rather this bizarre tendency to shut down at inopportune times. How many games this year have we left a dozen or more guys on base? Those sorts of squandered opportunities are vexing in the regular season. They are deadly in the playoffs. Grade: B-
Starting Pitching: This has undoubtedly been a strength, maybe the biggest strength, of the 2007 Red Sox for most of the season. But we’ve seen how tenuous this status is – injuries have a ripple effect that can turn a great staff sour quickly. We’ve lost Beckett to one trip to the DL and Schilling to some sort of mystery ailment for what is becoming a pretty big hunk of time. This is why I preached at the beginning of the year about never believing you have starters to spare. The sixth starter can go from a long relief guy without a real role to a fourth starter really quickly over the course of the season. Beckett has been an ace, clearly improving from last year when he had to adjust to the rigors of the American League. Our biggest worry about him is the skin issue on his fingers, whether you call it blisters or evulsions. If he stays healthy he looks to be the frontline guy we thought we were getting before last season. Dick-K has settled in nicely despite a hiccup before the break. For him it is a matter of avoiding that one big inning that seems to plague nearly every outing. But he’s the guy who brings the most excitement to the mound and has the highest “Wow!” factor. Schill has been injured and he has been spotty. Near no-hitter one time, utterly ineffective the next two, and I know that was largely because of the mystery ailment, but it still is not reassuring and stands as merely a more extreme example of his starts all season. Wakefield has been inconsistent too, but when he has been good he has been great. And really Tavarez has done a fine job eating innings and keeping us in most games. The key with him is that he needs a role, and he has one now. As for the rest (Snyder, Gabbard, etc.) we have to consider them works in progress and stopgaps, hopefully until Lester comes back. And let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, but Clay Bochholz has people using names like “Clemens,” and we should get a glimpse of him in August when rosters expand. Grade: A-
Relief Pitching: A real point of concern at the beginning of the year, the relief corps has proved to be a real source of strength for this team. The biggest concern is not quality, as Papelbon continues to grow into greatness and Okajima has unexpectedly been the best Japanese import on the Sox pitching staff. He has been awesome, giving us a bridge from the starters to Pap that reminds me of the days when the Yankees were not abjectly mediocre and they had the best setup men and closer in baseball. The concern is depth, but Lopez has stepped up and local boy Manny Delcarmen has shown flashes of brilliance at 98 mph. Timlin has been a problem, and if one guy goes down it could really hurt. But turning a weakness into a strength is the way championships are won. Grade: A-
Fielding: Defense is both the hardest area of performance to measure and it is, I firmly believe, the most overrated. This is not to say that anyone wants a weak defensive team, or a team that commits lots of errors. But I have always said that of the major categories, I’ll take a bad fielding team over a bad hitting team. At the same time, having the midseason defensive upgrade in 2004 clearly helped make all the difference in the world. It’s a delicate balance and the Sox seem to be maintaining it. Youks has been great, as has Lowell, shoring up the corner infield sports. Lugo and Cora have been fine in their turns at shortstop and Pedroia is growing into second. Our outfield defense has relied on Coco who has had some utterly spectacular moments and who shows us the importance of range in centerfield, especially if you have a corner infield or two for whom range is a bit of a problem. Manny’s defensive troubles are the most overstated problem in the game, as while he is not great, he is better than people think, and by playing shallow he historically makes a lot of outfield assists. No qualms with what drew brings to the outfield, though if he and/or Coco are out it becomes an adventure. Grade: B
Coaching: You know what I love about Tito? He’s accountable. If he makes a move there is always a reason, and even if you don’t buy that reason, he explains it and shows what was going on at the time, and if it failed he stands up for it without pretending that it did not work. Contrast that with the idiot savant approach of Jimy Williams or the affable Gumpishness of Grady Little and you understand why Francona has been so successful. Yes, there are those who still insist on referring to him derisively as “Francoma,” especially with regard to pitching, but in all, how can we not be happy with what Tito has accomplished, especially if he keeps the guys thriving for the remainder of this year? The biggest question mark has to be with Magadan as hitting coach because it is hard to distinguish correlation and causality. Papa Jack was both popular and successful. Magadan thus seems like an interloper, and worse, the team’s hitting performance has declined. Most reasonable people would attribute that to personnel and some down years so far, but what among that falls on Magadan’s shoulders? My view is that any hitting coach needs some time. Boston is not exactly a market that allows for patience, but let’s ride it out. Grade: B+
Management: Theo and company have put together a team that has been the best in baseball for most of the first half. I wish they would cease the revolving door approach at shortstop. But they have taken calculated risks and this team looks very different from the one in 2004 even while maintaining some success, albeit not what we have come to expect. So far the rumor mill has been quiet as the trade deadline creeps up on us, and it is hard to identify a pressing need coupled with a viable solution. Management makes its bones at two times, during the Hot Stove League and in the month after the All Star Break. Tito can only play with the guys he has. If Theo chooses to stand pat, I’ll be fine. But if we experience another collapse like last year, someone is going to have to be held to account. I’m far from saying that a collapse means the end of his reign, but it would mean that he has to go back to clean paper and decide what this team’s approach is going to be. I was happy with the offseason, and we still have a lot of baseball to play, not to mention the postseason, which we expect to see. Grade: Incomplete
Overall: I suppose the play’s the thing. The Sox are 19 games above .500, but they should be at 25 or more above at this point. They have a ten-game lead on Toronto and the Yankees. They have sound starting pitching that looks to get better with the return of Schilling and, we hope, Lester. The bullpen has been a revelation. The question mark, which is still odd for Sox fan, is the top-to-bottom ability of the lineup to score runs. If the bats improve in the second half, the Sox will win 100 games and be the odds-on favorites to win the American League title. So the play has been good. We just would like for it to be better. Grade: B+
Misc.: I like two factors in the second half: One is the schedule. The other is mathematics. There has been a lot of talk about how the Yankees play almost nothing but sub-.500 teams in the next five weeks. But the Yankees themselves are a sub-.500 team. Even good midget wrestling is still midget wrestling. Plus, we get something like 18 more games against Tampa and Kansas City. Their schedule is moderately more favorable, but the Sox can beat anyone, and they have the benefit of playing with the lead. As far as math goes, the Sox have been disappointing for a month, playing .500 ball. Let’s say they do that the rest of the way, going 38-37. That seems unlikely and they’ll surely get crushed in the playoffs, but they’ll finish with a record of 91-71. To finish with a 91-71 record the Yankees, who are currently 42-43, would have to go 44-28. That seems unlikely, but so does the Sox only playing .500 the rest of the way.
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