A Largely Baseless Prediction

I have no foundation for it, really. Like most of you I have read as much as possible to make sense of the goings on in the Democratic Senatorial primary in Connecticut, pitting upstart Ned Lamont against longtime Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman. But I cannot shake the idea that Lamont's support is largely chimerical, a visceral response to vague misgivings about Lieberman that peaked last week, still appeared to have some traction at the time of the latest Quinnipiac poll, but seems to be built on a foundation of sand. Lieberman did not start taking his upstart opponent seriously until very recently, at which point he began feverishly campaigning, and I cannot help wonder if the work he has done has not eppeared in the polls. So as I say, I have no foundation for it beyond informed speculation, but I get the sense that Lieberman is going to win today, and he is going to do so by a more comfortable margin than anyone expects, say 3-4 points, maybe more.

I know this will be in the blogosphere to haunt me forever, but for some time now I have been unable to shake this idea that Lamont is more of a cipher than a real threat. By tonight we should know.