Thursday, August 10, 2006

The Foiled London Plan

By now you all surely are aware that British authorities have thwarted a major planned terrorist attack that was in the late stages of preparation. I've received several emails this morning and as you might imagine have read quite a bit, and I have a few thoughts.


The first is, good for the British officials who consistently seem to do due diligence and who seem far less cynical in their approach to terrorism than ours do. I was in England in the summer of 2005 and wrote a good deal about those attacks, and so I have seen up-close the response of the Brits and was able to get a strong sense both of feelings on the ground but also of the ways in which british officials and police dealt with a serious attack against civilians and infrastructure. Terrorism alert levels have gone up in both the UK and the US after this latest news, and rightfully so, but the remarkable thing to me is to reflect on what appeared to be the very cynical manipulation of the terror alert levels by the Bush administration in 2004. This administraton has consistently used terrorism threats as a political tool, which is at best distasteful and at worst baldly irresponsible. Of course we shall see how the Bush administration deals with these attacks rhetorically and operationally.


One emailer this morning asked a logical question: Why did this take so long? he thought that al Qaeda might want to take a more scattershot approach, to make as many attempts as possible because any damage keeps them in the headlines. But I believe, and all evidence points to this being the case, that al Qaeda is more than happy to be in this for the long haul, and that they do have a plan that relies on more than merely attacking for the sake of attacking. they are a serious and formidable enemy, all the more dangerous because of their shadowy nature and their patience.


Judith Klinghoffer emailed me to give a heads up about her latest post at Deja Vu. She makes a provocative argument that warrants mentioning, even if I do not fully buy its premise. I'll simply quote her:

Shia Hezbollah was getting too much attention for Sunni Al Qaeda to take lying down. Bin Laden and company need to undertake a major operation to prove its superiority in the Islamist terrorist realm and stop the ascendency of Nasrallah. Al Qaeda felt time was NOT on their side and they had to act if they wished to stay in the game.

I am not certain that the neat sectarian breakdown works either descriptively or as an explanation, but it is a fascinating consideration: That internecine rivalries among jihadists fueled al Qaeda's latest attacks. But I think this underestimates the seriousness with which al Qaeda pursues its goals. Nonetheless, what Judith draws from this is spot on: "In other words, give out a sigh of relief but do not let down your guard. They will try again and soon. This has just begun."


In a moment of levity, which may or may not be appropriate, another person emailed, probably inevitably: "Liquid esxplosives are scary. But what are they going to do when terrorists unleash motherfucking snakes on the motherfucking plane." But pop culture joking aside, don't the 9/11 attacks and the concomitant anxiety that has resulted justify the only reason this silly little film with a seemingly absurd premise able to resonate, beyond the fact that Samuel L. Jackson is a cartoon character?


We will learn much more in the days, hours, and weeks to come, but once again we have been awoken from any somnolence that might have set in. the threat is real. It is active. And its perpetrators always act with malice aforethought.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Longtime reader, first time commenter. You are correct in your assumption that Al Qaeda is in this for the long haul. Check out Rohan Gunaratna's book on Al Qaeda, which is considered to be one of the best on the group. Also, experts such as Bruce Hoffman of RAND, Mia Bloom from University of Georgia, Farhana Ali from RAND, Ari Pedrahzur from University of Texas and other terrorism experts see Al Qaeda as more of a franchise now. This makes them even scarier since all bin Laden and his associates have to do is sit back and wait for people to come to them, ie the 7/7 bombers. If the plot succeeds they get credit and publicity and if it fails then they get free publicity. It is a win/win and minimizes the exposure of bin Laden and his associates. As for the internecine rivalries driving attacks, Bloom and Pedrahzur who have both studied suicide terrorism see competition for money and publicity between Hamas and Hezbollah as a factor in suicide bombings. Does this cross over into other areas? It is difficult to say, but it is an interesting theory as you point out. Walid Phares in book "Future Jihad" does a good job of explaining the long term goals of jihadists. Also worth a look is Michael Scheurer's "Through Our Enemies Eyes" which breaks down bin Laden's public statements. Whatever one wants to think of Scheurer, and he can be a bit of a nutcase, he does know bin Laden having headed the bin Laden unit at the CIA for four years.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

That should be Ami Pedahzur from the University of Texas, sorry for the misspelling with names.

Thunderstick said...

I think the bottom line that this teaches us is that the most important thing here isn't to be able to safeguard against the methods these people will use, but rather to catch these people before they are in a position to use them. Their methods will continue to become increasingly more sophisticated. Today it's liquid explosives, so no more liquids on planes. Tomorrow the liquids will be hidden in the soles of shoes or somewhere else. Eventually the only way you can ensure that nobody gets anything on the plane that's dangerous is to allow to luggage at all and to have everyone fly naked (and nobody wants to see DCat naked--not even that fiancee of his). That's why the most important thing to me isn't to make sure that nobody gets a bottle of water on a plane, but to make sure that the intelligence community is functioning efficiently and cooperatively to catch these people no matter what their means of destruction are. Then we won't need to worry about the water bottles and hair gel, only the damn snakes!!

Anonymous said...

Thunderstick,

You are absolutely correct, however, the problem is that how do you identify the terrorists? There is no real profile to a terrorist or suicide bomber. See Mia Bloom and Ami Pedahzur's books. The real question is how many civil liberties do we have to give up to feel secure? I was at a workshop on terrorism recently and the only thing all the speakers agreed on was that we would be the target of another terrorist attack. The interesting thing was that the military and FBI speakers said that they had all the tools they needed at the moment to go investigate potential terrorists. In fact the FBI speaker informed us that most of the tips the FBI got regarding potential terrorist activity came from the general population calling in suspicious activity. So much for all the money we have spent on surveillance programs etc. As for intelligence organizations working together Ron Suskind in his new book "The One Percent Doctrine" states that Cheney called in Tenet, Mueller and the other heads of the intelligence community and told them that the old days were over they were going to have to cooperate or else. Whatever one wants to think of Cheney, that is a clear message. The Counterterrorism Center in Virginia is supposed to cut through bureaucracy, but bureaucracies tend to have a life of their own and the protection of turf is a hard lesson to unlearn.

dcat said...

Both Thunderstick and Anonymous make good points. I am not certain who the FBI speaker was to whom anonymous refers, or what "most" means in that ciontext, but we still get vast amounts of vital information from intelligence sources and would likely get more were it nor for the fact that we seem to think that the war on gays and lesbians is more important than the war on terrorism, and so we fire dozens of Arabic epakers who could be of tremendous use in this war we face.
Anonymous (same one, I assume?) points us to a number of very useful books that everyone should try to get their hands on. And beyond being a franchise, let us keep in mind that Osama and his ilk formed an umbrella organization to coordinate jihad against the infidels (that's you and me) and that in some ways his Global Front is a lot more important to understand than al Qaeda.
Great contributioins all. I am having some difficulty posting, so I'll just let you all know that I am in San Antonio for the weekend. I also posted something about Dick Cheney's decision to throw the term "al Qaeda" around to label Democrats with whom he does not believe that I hope will get up soon, but you never know.

Cheers --
dcat

g_rob said...

James Fallows has a good article in this month's Atlantic Monthly about Al Qaeda's threat and how well we are succeeding and what we can do better.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200609/fallows_victory

dcat said...

Greg --
While I get Fallows' point, I have a hard time, especially after yesterday's events, with the idea of simply declaring victory, as if saying something makes it so. The idea of manipulating perceptions in the face of certain realities is a troublesome, 1984ish tendency in today's politics. Plus, again, I think we need to reconceptualize both our views of al Qaeda -- views that are becoming increasingly obsolete the more cells decentralize to the point of autonomousness and the more the purpose of the Global Front for Islamic Jihad is capable of creating home grown Qaeda-like organizations.

Still, this is an artyicle that merits our readers' attention.

Thanks --

dcat

g_rob said...

D

I agree that declaring victory would be a little presumptious and arbitrary but I think the point is to get us to think differently about how al Qaeda is operating and how we need to respond. As they morph and take on new forms so must our response to them.

dcat said...

Greg --
Definitely. And I think that many people are trying to do that. I just do not think many of them are operating in the inner circle of this administration, to everyone's detriment.
dcat