The South African Succession and Mbeki's Future

As someone who on more than one occasion has expressed concern with the idea of Thabo Mbeki and the African National Congress amending the South African constitution to allow Mbeki to serve a third term in office, I am relieved to see The Mail & Guardian speculate about Mbeki's future and thus the ANC succession battle. Both of these stories are signs that South Africa will continue on the right path.

as for Mbeki's future, there is always the possibility that he will enter the private sector -- his background is in economics -- but given that Mbeki has been such an ardent proponent of his own vision of Pan-Africanism, his "African Renaissance," I tend to think that he'll look toward becoming involved in leadership in regional or continent-wide institutions. My initial guess is that leadership of the African Union will hold a great deal of appeal for him, especially if somehow resolutions to the crises in the Sudan, Somalia, and the perpetual state of chaos that is the Congo emerge between now and 2009 and he can begin to bring to fruition some of his visions for Africa.

As for the succession battle to come, Tokyo Sexwale, a prominent businessman and former stalwart in the anti-apartheid struggle, seems to have the support of a number of prominent South Africans. there is speculation that among these might be Nelson Mandela, which, if true would almost assuredly provide heft to Sexwale's ambitions. If the private sector is going to provide the next South African president, I have always had high hopes for Cyril Ramaphosa, who also went into the private sector to make his much-deserved fortunes after playing such a vital role in the negotiations that led to liberation.

2007 will be one of the most fascinating years in South African politics since 1994 largely because in December the ANC will (I hope) pick a new party leader, who then almost assuredly will become the next president in 2009. As long as that "new leader" does not end up being Thabo Mbeki, I will continue to have faith in South Africa's future.