Worthless NFL Predictions

Predictions. Why do I make them? The off chance of being right is more than offset by the reality that almost everyone's predictions about everything are a middling effort. Still, this is what I do. So with no further fanfare, here are my predictions for this year's NFL season. I'm going to list order of finish and my reasoning and then my playoff picks -- I'm not going to pick regular season records only to have the Thunderstick weigh in and tell me that my math is wrong. Wild Card teams get denoted with an asterisk.

AFC EAST
1. Patriots -- D will be weak early on, but will cohere, the O will be strong, and they are able to play the disrespect card, Belichick's favorite card to play.
2. Dolphins* -- They improved more than the Jets did in the offseason and they are flying below the radar.
3. Jets -- Did I miss something? This team needed the Colts and Bengals both to roll over just to get to 9-7 and slip through to the playoffs last year. They had a nice run in the postseason and they have a really good D, but finding Rex Ryan amusing and wondering about how well the rest of the league will respond to his running his yap are two separate things.
4. Bills -- This is a terrible, terrible team. CJ Spiller will get used and abused, because they will not be able to throw the ball consistently.

AFC NORTH
1. Ravens -- Now this might be the team that the Jets want to be. They will be stout on defense and will have a legitimate offense with loads of weapons. And I know that Ray Lewis and co. take issue with everyone anointing the Jets as champs in waiting.
2. Steelers* -- Peter King's choice for the Super Bowl might be lucky to make the playoffs. Roethlisberger's absence surely isn't going to help their cause.
3. Bengals -- But they may be the most amusing team in the league. Unless you're Carson Palmer when both TO and Ochocinco feel they aren't getting the ball enough in November.
4. Browns -- I just feel bad for my many friends who are Cleveland fans. How can you not?

AFC SOUTH
1. Colts -- Look, I'd love to be able plausibly to come up with some other scenario. But seeing Manning choke away another postseason has its own rewards.
2. Texans -- The Texans are always on the verge of becoming. For now they are still becoming a team that's not going to the playoffs.
3. Titans -- I wonder if Vince Young's gonna get handed a Heisman in the next few weeks.
4. Jaguars -- Hard to believe Jacksonville has an NFL team and LA doesn't.

AFC WEST
1. Chargers -- The best of a bad bunch out west.
2. Chiefs -- Consider this a vote of solidarity for Matt Cassell.
3. Raiders -- Just be less horrible, baby.
4. Broncos -- Not a stellar offseason, which follows a not stellar second half of last season. But at least they picked Tebow in the first round. That should bear lots of fruit . . .

NFC EAST
1. Cowboys -- It's always funny to approach a new football season and listen to Cowboys fans insist they are going undefeated and will win the Super Bowl. Michael Irvin isn't walking through that door (with scissors to stab a teammate in the throat).
2. Eagles* -- My guess is the McNabb trade will prove to be a wash for the Eagles, and that's probably a pretty good outcome for them.
3. Giants -- Boring and mediocre is no way to go through life, fellas.
4. Redskins -- The best part is that I am certain Skins fans started talking Super Bowl as soon as they acquired McNabb. It's in their dna. (I actually think this will be a pretty good division top to bottom).

NFC NORTH
1. Packers -- Not sure I buy the Aaron Rodgers MVP talk, but this will complete the cycle of Rodgers supplanting Favre on the team, in the division, and in the conference.
2. Vikings -- The Saints will kick the shit out of the Vikings tonight and I suspect that will begin an ugly final season (seriously) for Favre.
3. Bears -- Closer to 4th than to 2nd.
4. Lions -- One of these years this won't be an automatic choice.

NFC SOUTH
1. Saints -- This team isn't winning the Super Bowl again, but they are likely to win the division again and for now they remain pretty likable.
2. Falcons* -- I think last year, not two years ago, was the outlier. This will be a pretty good team. And this is also a vote for Matt Ryan.
3. Panthers -- They should have a good 1-2 running attack, and Matt Moore is fairly serviceable. They aren't good enough for the postseason, but they are also not awful.
4. Buccaneers -- If you do not live within 100 miles of the Tampa-St. Pete metropolitan region you cannot tell me five specific things about the Tampa Bay Bucs.

NFC WEST
1. 49ers -- Holy shit this is a woeful division.
2. Seahawks -- I mean awful. (Though to be fair, the whole "Pete Carroll was a terrible head coach in the NFL" narrative is kind of bullshit.)
3. Cardinals -- Matt Leinart must have been really awful in the locker room because his numbers were better than Derek Anderson's. I still think Leinart's going to be a serviceable NFL quarterback.
4. Rams -- Sam Bradford will be good someday. But this team is going to make this first year unpleasant for him.

PLAYOFFS
AFC:
Wild Card Round: Colts over Dolphins, Patriots over Steelers
Divisional Round: Ravens over Colts, Patriots over Chargers
Conference Championship: Ravens over Patriots (yes, I do think this is a first for me, picking against the Pats. My heart says they can do it. But since no one on earth is picking the Pats there is no way that I can pick them to win it all and not come across as even more of a homer than usual.)

NFC:

Wild Card Round: Eagles over 49ers, Cowboys over Falcons
Divisional Round: Packers over Cowboys, Saints over Eagles
Conference Championship: Packers over Saints

Super Bowl: Ravens over Packers


Kickoff in just a few minutes. WOO HOO!

FPA Group Stage Previews

I now have my brave and inevitably wrong predictions for and previews of the group stages of the World Cup posted over at the FPA Africa Blog. I've only been following world football for a few years now, so if I were you I'd run to Ladbrokes or your local bookie and bet the exact opposite of everything I wrote. I'm off on my three-day travel adventure starting at 6 tomorrow morning. In the thirty or so hours that follow I'll go from San Antonio to Dallas to Washington to Rome to Addis Ababa.

Getting Linky

A few stories that have piqued my interest:

Sports Illustrated has a great article on Welsh rugby player Gareth Thomas, who has more caps for Wales than any player in that country's history. He also is openly gay. And he is still playing. The question that motivates Gary Smith's article is when will there be an openly gay player in American team sports?

Conservatives always seem to predict apocalypse when it comes to social reform and economic regulation. And they are almost always completely wrong.

I don't think I have ever seen a Powerpoint presentation that did not detract a lot more than it added. Most people who use Powerpoint use it as a crutch to cover up their inability to convey material well. As a result students come to rely upon it as if it were necessary. It looks like many in the US military agree with me.

Here is an experiment all married people should get behind: Try to do it every day for a month. (Honey? Are you reading?)

dcat's National League Preview (With World Series Pick!)

And now for a much briefer take on the National League. (World Series pick at bottom.)

NL East
1. Phillies: This quasi-dynasty in the making had a peculiar offseason, effectively swapping proven postseason commodity Cliff Lee for Uber-Ace Roy Halladay. Very good rotation, strong lineup, postseason experience: I think you'd be a fool not to pencil Philly in to the postseason.

2. Braves: They have the most exciting young position player in baseball in Jason Heyward. The rotation is sneaky good. But they are rolling the dice with Takaski Saito and Billy Wagner at the back of the bullpen.

3. Mets: The sun will rise, the sun will set, Mets will get injured, and they will disappoint their fans, aka the fans of New York's other team.

4. Marlins: They have Hanley Ramirez going for them, which is nice. Although keep in mind that some years this front office really tries to win. But what a lousy team to root for as a consequence in all of those other years.

5. Nationals: I have Stephen Strasburg on my fantasy team just because at some point they are going to have to bring him up just to get people to go to games. This will be an improved team, but by how much, and will it matter?

NL Central:
1. Cardinals: Always good, rarely great (even when they won the World Series in 2005) but they have the best player in the game, a strong rotation, and a decent lineup. It is difficult to begrudge this team and their fans their success.

2. Cubs: Remember last year when they were a hot choice to win it all? That was then. Expectations are low, which might benefit this team. But I look at their lineup, their pitching staff, their bullpen, and I just see nothing that makes me think that the best thing about Wrigley this year won't yet again be Wrigley itself.

3. Brewers: Or maybe the Reds.

4. Reds: Or maybe the Brewers. Though I have to say, I love them stepping up for the moderate-risk, high-reward Aroldis Chapman signing.

5. Astros: Ever since they made their improbable run to the World Series a few years back it seems as if this team has just disappeared. I will root for Brad Mills, their first-year manager and Terry Francona's long-time right-hand man with the Sox. By the way: Is it me, or is the NL Central really freaking dull?

6. Pirates: It is nearly impossible for casual fans to have any reason to understand that this is one of the great franchises in baseball history. We need to find a way to get them in the same division as the Royals.

NL West:
1. Rockies: Every year this is a competitive division, and it seems that every year someone different wins, and someone good fades. They have done a good job of developing an organization that produces players and they have built the team to their ballpark. The lineup is really disciplined too, drawing loads of walks and therefore seeing lots of pitches. It will pay off this year.

2. Dodgers*: The Dodgers seem to be in the running every year. This year won't be any difference. Manny is flying below the radar, the Broxton-Sherrill bullpen combo should shorten games, and they seem to be made up of solid if not spectacular guys up and down the lineup. That's not a key to a World Series championship, but it should keep Chavez Ravine open into October.

3. Diamondbacks: If they can just improve their OBP slightly this is a team that should score tons of runs. And if they can score lots of runs they can win lots of games, or at least keep fans entertained in the Valley of the Sun.

4. Giants: Largely because I don't see Tim Lincecum, with that frame, continuing to be an ace without dealing with some injuries. This is not, to say the least, a great hitting team. And without Lincecum it could get ugly. And yes, I am predicating my entire guess on the San Francisco season in 2010 on an injury that has shown no sign of coming.

5. Padres: Sure -- if the Pads are in the crapper in July it increases the odds that the Sox are in the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes. But it's not like I wish ill on them. I just suspect that illness is coming no matter what, and if I can provide a gentle nudge, well . . .

* Denotes Wild Card Winner
NLDS:
Phillies over Dodgers
Rockies over Cardinals

NLCS:
Phillies over Rockies

World Series:
Red Sox over Phillies

dcat's MLB Preview: American League

I do not have the time to write up a full preview of this year's MLB season, which began in rousing fashion with last night's Sox come-from-behind victory over those dastards from the Bronx. Nonetheless, here are predictions for the American League with brief commantary that is all sure to be wrong. I hope to follow with the NL as soon as practical, hopefully before I leave for DC.

AL East:
1. Red Sox: Look, by now you should be used to homer picks from me. But since I've been writing dcat, there has never been a year when picking the Sox to succeed has exactly been pie-in-the-sky stuff. The narrative for this year's Sox is pretty well set: They decided to go with pitching and defense at the expense of offense, as indicated by letting Jason Bay sign with the star-crossed Mets and placing Mike Cameron in center field and Adrian Beltre at third. And this is true for what it is worth. But they also upgraded at shortstop on O and D by bringing in Marco Scutaro from the Blue Jays, who had a peculiarly late-blooming career year at the plate. Meanwhile, they went and added Angels ace (the word "bulldog" usually accompanies most descriptions) John Lackey. The fact is, the Red Sox will be in the top five and maybe better in offense in the American league, and whatever drop-off they have at the plate will be more than countered by runs saved on the mound and in the field. Thus their Pythag prediction should have them projecting out to more than 95 wins, and 95 wins is always the target on Yawkey Way. Obviously we worry about Big Papi's bat -- will he be the hitter of April, May and October of last year, or will he be the guy who pounded the ball in June, July, August and September? The answer to this question will go a long way in determining just how much offensive dropoff the Sox experience.

2. Yankees*: Trust me, I wanted to go with the Rays here, and the Rays are a popular choice not only to make the playoffs, but in some circles to win the East. And the Yankees have holes -- their D is not all that good. Their bullpen bridge to Rivera is far from secure, and Joba Chamberlain throwing 93 mph is a long way from him throwing 99 mph. One always assumes that they will get old. But that team can bash. It has enough starting pitching to be competitive on most nights. They seem to be nearly everyone's choice to repeat, and the middle of that lineup is going to pucker the sphincters of a lot of pitchers in the American League. But they have some holes that their supporters do not want to acknowledge even if their detractors (allo guvnah!) play them up too much.

3. Rays: This is an absurdly precocious bunch. And if they all peak at the right time, they could be an even better team than they were two years ago when they went to the World Series. But in this crazy game as much goes wrong as goes right for even the best teams, and I just don't think that Tampa has given themselves a depth of experienced talent that will be able to compete day-n-and-day-out with the Sox and Yanks. That said, I kept expecting them to fold two years ago and it never happened. If they are there in September they just might be there through October. The rest of the country gets sick of hearing it, but goodness, the AL East is loaded, and yet these teams still win 95 or so games a year.

4. Orioles: Another team that has embraced a youth movement, the O's are, simply enough, victims of geography. That's not going to change any time soon. If this team can win some games it will revive what has historically been a pretty good fan base. But when they play the Sox at Camden Yards it becomes Fenway South, and it turns into the Southern Toilet when New York is in town. Win games, fill stands, make money, get better players. That's a blueprint for every team in baseball, of course, but is vital in the AL East with the two leviathans and the upstart Rays.

5. Blue Jays: This was a team that seemed to be on the rise three years ago. I suppose they can find solace in the fact that in most divisions they would not be slotted in to last place. In this one however, if a lot goes right they can pick off the Orioles. That's a rousing thought when trying to inspire a ticket base.

AL Central:
1. Twins: Every year Minnesota is in it to win it. If by "It" we mean the American League Central. In a world where everyone now plays Moneyball (the rich Red Sox every bit as much as any small market team) they still actually have to try to find ways to exploit inefficiencies in the market because they have little money to spend. The new outdoor facility should be a boon to them -- though would you want to attend a game there in October? -- as will be signing hometown All American Boy Joe Mauer to a lengthy extension that all but assures that all of his important years are spent in a Twins uniform. Yeah, losing Joe Nathan is tough, but what does Moneyball tell us about closers? This will be a competitive, if somewhat mediocre, division. the winner might emerge with only 90 wins. I think the Twins will hit that target first.

2. Tigers: Look at that lineup. Pretty cobbled together -- Damon and Ordonez and Cabrera and Everett all have come in from elsewhere in the last year or two. Dontrelle Willis has claimed their third starter spot, which could be a sign of redemption or of desperation. Yet Jim Leyland has this team in a position to compete every day, and they have done so for three years now, playing the role of the Rays before the Rays did.

3. White Sox: I have to admit, the idea of the Windy City Madman having a Twitter account and the wherewithal to use it was almost enough to inspire me to figure out how the hell Twitter works. Almost. This team will frustrate the hell out of Guillen all summer as they struggle to reach 80 wins. That should make for fun reading, assuming you are not sensitive to profanities.

4. Indians: Remember when these guys were one win away from winning the American League and thus getting to face the Rockies and likely winning the World Series in 1997? Yeah, it seems like a long time ago. Maybe Fausto Carmona will return to form. Travis Hafner too. But it's probably going to be a long year at the Jake.

5. Royals: The Royals. it will surprise you to hear, will probably not be very good in 2010. Wash, rinse, repeat.

AL West:
1. Rangers: I suppose this could be seen as a surrogate homer pick since I have lived in Texas for nearly six years. I think the West is going to be wide open. Seattle is a trendy pick. The Angels are the safe pick. The A's are no one's pick. I thought last summer that the Rangers were one year away. By that math it's one year later. That pitching staff will be legitimately decent. The bats will rebound from a disappointing 2009. Neftali Feliz is about to make the leap at the back of the pen. The only reservation I have about the Rangers is the one I have always had: Do you know how freaking hot it gets in Texas for the entirety of the summer? It's 90+ today in West Texas and it's not uncharacteristic. DFW might be mildly cooler, but there will be a ton of 100 degree days in Arlington this year. Try playing in that weather every home game for three (or more) months straight.

2. Angels: The Angels are always good. And they got over the hump of beating the Red Sox in the postseason last year. But they intentionally got a lot older in the offseason (Matsui and Abreu and Hunter -- oh my!) while losing the closest thing thay had to an ace in Lackey. Plus I hate small ball. Though they will have a harder time playing it this year. I may well be most wrong on this one, but I think the Angels might be fighting for third this year.

3. Mariners: If you want to talk about run prevention over run scoring, don't look to Fenway, look to the trendy choice to win the West, which plays at Safeco. But look at that lineup. Eesh. Milton Bradley is slotted in as their cleanup hitter. Ruminate on that for a few minutes and get back to me as to how they win the West.

4. A's: Don't think that Moneyball has been discredited just because Billy Bean is no longer using duct tape and chewing gum to cobble together a team that wins 95 games and the AL West every year. the rest of the league caught up with them. It's harder to exploit inefficiencies when the rest of the league knows what those inefficiencies are, can pay for them, and can pay for stars, the lack of whom led to Moneyball (Not Billy Bean's coinage -- you knew that, right?) in the first place. But, yeah, the A's are going to get last in this division.

* Denotes Projected Wild Card Winner

Postseason:
ALDS:
Sox over Twins
Yanks over Rangers

ALCS:
Sox over Yanks (What, you expected something else?)

FPA Africa Year in Review (Self Indulgence Alert)

Over at the Foreign Policy Association's Africa Blog I have published my (very long) annual Year in Review post. It includes my predictions for 2010 (and an assessment of my predictions for 2009).

TNR Tosses Around the Pigskin

When I think of football I think of . . . The New Republic. Well, not really. But it turns out that every so often the venerable liberal thought magazine has considered the gidiron. Take a walk through TNR's football archives as you gear up for tonight's Pats-Saints clash.

My prediction: Patriots 38 Saints 31.

Ready For Some Football? Why Yes, Yes I Am

Tonight marks the first game of the new NFL season. It's also Thursday. What does that mean? It means welcome to the first installment of Big Daddy Drew's Thursday Afternoon NFL Dick Joke Jambaroo. You missed it. I missed it. Humankind missed it.

Predictions for this year's season that are sure to shame me:

AFC East
Pats 13-3
NY Jets 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 4-12

AFC North
Pittsburgh 11-5
Baltimore 10-6
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 3-13

AFC South
Indianapolis 10-6
Jacksonville 9-7
Tennessee 9-7
Houston 8-8

AFC West
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 6-10
Denver 5-11
Oakland 3-13

WILD CARD
Ravens over Indy
Chargers over Jags

DIVISIONAL
Patriots over Chargers
Steelers over Ravens

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Pats over Steelers

NFC East
Philadelphia 10-6
NY Giants 10-6
Washington 9-7
Dallas 8-8

NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 10-6
Chicago 8-8
Detroit 3-13

NFC South
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 9-7
Atlanta 8-8
Tampa Bay 6-10

NFC West
Arizona 9-7
Seattle 9-7
San Francisco 6-10
St. Louis 5-11

WILD CARD
Minny over Arizona
Giants over Saints

DIVISIONAL
Eagles over Minny
Packers over Giants

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Packers over Eagles

SUPER BOWL
Pats over Packers

Feel free to start your mockery!

EDITED: For arithmetic

Opening Day!!!!!!!!!!

Today (or tomorrow -- see the next paragraph) should be a national holiday. And were I king of the world (someday, someday) enacting such a festive respite in honor of the start of baseball would be one of the first pronouncements I would make, alongside establishing the global fashion police (hey you, Fatty, where you think you're going in that spandex? Walk back into the house slowly and no one gets hurt . . .) and establishing a college football playoff system. And I know there was baseball played last night, a blasphemy that too would be done with the stroke of a pen in my enlightened despotism.

The Red Sox were scheduled to be on national television today, but because of frightful April weather in Boston, the game has been postponed to tomorrow. Which brings me to the question of what the hell the Sox and Rays are doing kicking off in Boston in early April when both teams just left Florida, where the Rays play in an indoor facility. I love Fenway, I love baseball, and I love Opening Day, but Fenway in early April can be frigid, and if it is wet it can be utterly miserable. Why not play this series in St. Pete and open at Fenway in a couple of weeks? 'Twould be done in dcat's world (admit it -- you're growing warm to the idea of my benevolent dictatorship).

Here are my perfunctory predictions for the season:

American League:

AL East: (Predicted order of finish; * denotes predicted Wild Card berth) Red Sox, *Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays (In the best division in baseball, maybe in baseball history, three teams will win 90 games and the fifth-place team will be fighting for a .500 record through September.)

AL Central: Indians, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals (The Indians will rebound to win a stunningly mediocre division.)

AL West: Angels, Rangers, A's, Mariners (Also mediocre, but more competitive, one of the stories in the West will be the Rangers finally having some good young pitching to go with a team that can always hit. Still, at least for this year, the Angels will continue to be the class of the division.)

National League:

NL East: Mets, *Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals (It is fun watching the Mets collapse, but they have strengthened their bullpen and should win the East, though Philadelphia is not going to give up the crown all that easily.)

NL Central: Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Astros, Pirates (Why in the hell does the NL Cantral have six teams while the AL West has four? This has always annoyed me. My benign autocracy will shift one of these teams to the American league -- welcome back Milwaukee!

NL West: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Giants, Padres (Manny really is a difference maker. This should be a good race to the end, though, and the Diamondbacks could pull it out.)

Postseason:
ALDS: Sox over Indians; Angels over Rays

NLDS: Cubs over Phillies; Mets over Dodgers

ALCS: Sox over Angels (Again.)

NLCS: Cubs over Mets (hey, one of these years this much-anticipated matchup is going to happen)

World Series: Sox over Cubs in six. (What, you thought I was going in another direction? The Sox both have my blind loyalty and a hell of a team. The pitching staff, starters to back of the pen, could be other-worldly and the lineup will have its usual stellar season. That's a nice combination.)

Play Ball!!! (Tomorrow!)

The Arms Race in the East

At The Boston Globe Tony Massarotti is enthusiastic about the Red Sox pitching corps, particularly the bullpen. The American League East is going to be incredible this year, maybe the greatest division in baseball history, and so how the pitching staffs fare will go a long way in determining which teams will be playing in October and which very good team will be stuck watching. None is so blind as he who will not see, but I still think the Rays will be the odd team out, though of course I hope the Yankees can spent October counting their money while watching the Sox and Rays fight it out for the right to go to the World Series.

Bad Predictions

Andrew Sullivan is holding a vote for his end of year awards. The Von Hoffman Award goes to the worst, most brazenly arrogant wrong predictions of the year. Here are the nominees. Sullivan also directs us to Foreign Policy's 10 Worst Predictions for 2008. Feel free to dig up a few of mine. I'm sure they are not all that hard to find.

Baseball Playoffs: Fearless Predictions

In yesterday's Boston Globe Bob Ryan had a wonderful column remembering John Updike's New Yorker essay "Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu," one of the finest pieces of writing about baseball or anything else. The playoffs start this week with lots of compelling storylines: Is the the year the Cubs finally break through, rewarding their fans like the Red Sox and White Sox have rewarded theirs in recent years? Will the Tampa Rays' carriage turn into a pumpkin, or are they for real? Can the Red Sox repeat, establishing a legitimate claim to the first dynasty of the twenty-first century? And a Cubs-Red Sox World Series: great matchup or the greatest matchup?

I'm thrilled with how the Red Sox are heading into the postseason. They did not have a dominant year, but they still emerged with one of the four best records in baseball and are poised for another deep postseason run. They have the pitching, especially to master the short five-game series, when they will only need to rely on a three-man rotation, with Beckett, Dice-K, and Lester to take the hill. The Sox struggled against the Angels and Rays this year more than I would like to see but that will not matter one bit in the postseason. The lineup is reasonably balanced, and is led less by Big Papi than by MVP candidates Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Terry Francona is as well equipped for this stage of the season as anay manager in baseball, and to my mind handled the last two weeks of the season just about perfectly, as he did last year. The Angels are talented. They have a deep lineup and they play small ball, but they do not work deep into counts, which may favor the Red Sox starters. They will rely on their starting pitching to bridge the way to their excellent relievers, so the key for the Red Sox will be to get to the starters early to disrupt Mike Scoscia's preferred pitching usage and to get whacks at the middle relievers. The Angels want to shorten the game by getting to K-Rod. The Sox have to avoid K-Rod getting into that situation. They thus need to work pitch counts, be patient, score early, and avoid a traditional Red Sox bugaboo even for good teams: leaving men on base. The Angels may have been the best team in the regular season, but the Red Sox have been their nightmare in the playoffs. I expect that to continue. Sox in four.

As for the other matchups:

Tampa has a huge advantage inasmuch as the AL Central has yet to be decided, with the White Sox having to make up a missed game against Detroit today and if they win, then facing a one-game playoff against the Twins. That has to favor the Rays who will continue their run for another week. No matter who they play, Rays in five.

The Cubs have been the best team in the National league by a long way. The Dodgers won the worst division in baseball only in the last week. This should be a mismatch. It won't be. The post-Manny Dodgers have been very good. Joe Torre knows how to manage in the postseason. On paper this should not be close. In reality, it will take the Cubs five games to pull this one out (and part of me wants to predict the Dodgers).

The fight for the final spot in the postseason represented a war of attrition. The Mets did their now-traditional vanishing act (New York Baseball Fever: Catch It!) thus allowing the Brewers to slink into the playoffs like a drunk trying not to wake his spouse as he stumbles into things on the way to the bedroom. The Phillies did not exactly seize the east until late. Nonetheless the Phils will take this largely because the Brewers won't know how. Phillies in five.

The Cubs will beat the Phillies in 6 for the NLCS, the Sox will beat the Rays in five for the ALCS, and the Red Sox, playing the role of hissable bullies and enemies to karma, will break the hearts of Cub fans yet again in six games split between Fenway Park and Wrigley that will cause an outbreak of purple prose across the land. Go Sox!!!

Fearless NFL Predictions

Unless you are either a real night owl or an early bird (I have created an automatic cliche generator here at dcat) by the time you read this you are likely to be within 12 hours of the kickoff the the 2008 NFL season.

If Tom Brady is healthy, I am pretty content with where the Patriots are heading in to this season. The secondary is a concern and the linebacking corps is a not-necessarily-reassuring mix of young and old, but otherwise it is hard to see where a team that was one play away from finishing off a 19-0 season is flawed to the point where they will not be serious contenders through January.

My sure to be laughable postseason predictions:

NFC
Divisional Winners:
East: Cowboys
North: Vikings
South: Saints
West: Seahawks
Wild Card: Eagles, Giants
Playoffs:
Wild-Card Round: Saints over Eagles; Giants over Seahawks
Divisional Round: Cowboys over Saints; Vikings over Giants
NFC Championship: Cowboys over Vikings

AFC
Divisional Winners:
East: Patriots
North: Steelers
South: Colts
West: Chargers
Wild Card: Jaguars, Browns
Playoffs:
Wild-Card Round: Jaguars over Steelers; Chargers over Browns
Divisional Round: Patriots over Jaguars; Chargers over Colts
AFC Championship: Patriots over Chargers

Super Bowl XLIII (Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida, February 1, 2009): Patriots over Cowboys

Sometimes heart and head converge. Enjoy the games.

One Game to Glory: Super Bowl Preview

There have been approximately eleventy-billion words written and more than that many spoken about the Pats-Giants Super Bowl matchup today. I'm not going to be able to add much insight. But since when has that ever stopped me?

While I think the Patriots are going to mash the Giants, there are ways that the Ginats can win. If their front four can get to Brady, allowing their secondary and linebackers to be in pass coverage without blitzing, if Eli Manning can connect with Plaxico Burress and the rest of that receiving corps in that 10-15 yard zone where the Pats have previously shown themselves to be sort of vulnerable, if the Giants can pound the ball, keeping the Patriot defense on the field and more importantly, the Pats offense off of it, the Giants will make a game of this. The Giants are a good team or else they would not be here. But keep in mind my mantra: The best team going in almost always wins these sorts of matchups. I know that sounds obvious, but in our zeal to talk ourselves into good games, we let this fact slip away.

But the following are not good reasons for why the Giants might win the Super Bowl, even though I have actually heard people try to use them to boost the Giants:

That they have momentum. Are these people insane? The Patriots are 18-0, the only team in history ever to reach that level. The Giants have won three games in a row. Their loss was to the Patriots. One of those wins was a Wild Card game victory over Tampa, a game they had to play because, well, they were not that good during the regular season.

As a subset of the momentum argument, some have asserted that the Giants' record ten-game road winning streak gives them an advantage. Fforget, of course, that the Patriots have an eight game road winning streak. The Giants have won games on the road because, again, they were not good enough to get so much as a single home playoff game. The Giants have lost at ome this season. Let's not make too much of this road winning streak given that, again, the Patriots are undefeated. they win every single momentum discussion.

We've heard a lot of the "Eli has grown" arguments. But let me ask you this: Do we really think that three games have turned Eli from a wildly inconsistent quarterback with a nearly 1:1 interception-to-touchdoen ratio into Joe Montana? He's been good in the playoffs. Let's not make more of it than that.

So what do I see happening?

And finally, we've heard all sorts of things about the 38-35 game to close ouyt the regular season. And the Giants did play one hell of a game. But the Pats didn't do anything on defense in terms of game planning. And the Pats won that game and put up 38 points. I do not see them scoring less than 38 and I don't see the Giants scoring as much as 35. Overstate the Giants learning how to beat the Patriots based on that game. What they actually learned is that they know how to lose to the Patriots. maybe only by three, but a three-point loss is a loss nonetheless, and forgive me if I think that Belichick will have done a better job of working from that game and using the two-week interregnum since the conference championship games than Coughlin has.

I can envision the Patriots coming out and leaning on the running game, with Laurence Maroney pounding inside and breaking outside. With Kevin Faulk as a change of pace back. With Heath Evans ensuring third-and-short success. And perhaps with an occasional attempt to hit Moss deep. Establishing the run will neutralize the Giants' admittedly stellar pass pressure, because they will not be able to pin their ears back. They will need to play the run. By the second quarter the Pats will be able to go to the passing game more -- mostly mid-range passes to Watson, Faulk, Welker, and just about every other guy on the roster who does not line up from tackle to tackle.

By the time halftime approaches the Pats will have all of their weapons at their disposal, they will be up by a couple of touchdowns, and the Giants will have to rely on Eli Manning to lead them from behind. The last month notwithstanding, I don't think Eli having to make up a big deficit inspires confidence among Giants fans. The Pats will force Manning into at least two interceptions. The Pats will swarm runners and force at least one fumble. And the Patriot special teams will have at least one big play. by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, we'll see a coronation, not a contest.

Patriots 45-Giants 16

NFL Playoffs: The Divisional Round

Here are my quick assessments of the NFL playoffs this weekend, with my always-entertaining predictions. (Unless I'm betting Holmes, in which case I always win, I'm pretty mediocre at this sort of thing.):

Seattle at Green Bay: Green Bay is at home and is by most measures the better team. Bret Favre's magical run continues for at least another week as Seattle on the road is not a great team. This is a nice JV game before the varsity takes the field in Foxborough. Green Bay 34-Seattle 17

Jacksonville at New England: Lots of folks love the Jags because they can run and stop the run and thus are a good bet in a cold weather stadium against a team predicated on passing. This is, to put it bluntly, nonsense. The Jags are also not a great pass D, and the Pats not only have the best passing offense in the league, but arguably the best passing offense in the history of the NFL. Meanwhile the Pats have had two weeks off, Belichick has been able to game plan for the Jags, the game is at home, and the weather is supposed to be conducive to a passing offense. I have a pretty demonstrable history of getting insanely nervous before these games. But I am confident that the Pats are going to maul the Jags. The Pats may lose before completing the run to perfection. But not today and not against this team. New England 44-Jacksonville 23

San Diego at Indianapolis: My guess is that Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, and the rest of the Colts love flying this low below the radar. No one is talking about them. Meanwhile the Chargers won their playoff game last week, but in far from compelling fashion. There has been lots of talk about Marvin Harrison this week, but his return won't be as much of a factor as the inevitable implosion that the Chargers will engage in sometime around the third quarter. maybe this would be a game in San Diego. It won't be in Indy. Indianapolis 38-San Diego 27

New York at Dallas: This will likely be the closest game of the weekend, and in that sense the most entertaining, but for some reason I see this being a typically ugly NFC east slugfest in which the team that turns the ball over last watches their playoff hopes fade. Given that a Cowboys-Pack, Pats-Colts weekend might be the greatest pair of games in the history of the NFL, and given that I don't think Eli can get it done again, even if they are on a roll and this is the dreaded third matchup this season after two Cowboy wins, I think Dallas will win. Dallas 21-New York 17

Enjoy the games, and Go Pats!!!

What's Next in The Race?

It seems clear that the key to being a successful pundit is to focus less on what's new or what's now and to place all of one's energies on what's next. With that in mind, here are two "what's next" sort of pieces on the primary campaigns, one from Michael Barone at Real Clear Politics, the other from Ronald Brownstein at National Journal.

Seriously -- Let's Get It On

Forget about last night's game. Today marks Opening Day of the 2007 baseball season. The Sox open up at Kansas City for a game I almost tried to attend but for some logistical difficulties (like getting there and stuff). I will nonetheless be tuned to my television today at 3:00 Central time for the debut of the 2007 Boston Red Sox.

Although I've been remarkably reticent about the upcoming season, I am as excited and optimistic for this year as for any since 2004 when my particular form of madness reached its apex. It's not just the new additions -- Daisuke Matsuzaka, of course, but also JD Drew and Julio Lugo -- who inspire such grand hopes, but also the fact that Boston enters the season healthy, that Schilling is pitching for a contract, and that once again the Mannny Ramirez situation seems stable and so the Manny-Papi 1-2 punch remains intact to terrorize the league, with Drew looking as a potentially devastating number five for pitching staffs across the league.

For me there are also some hidden keys. With all of the talk about Dice-K and the predictable sound and fury that comes from Schilling people are forgetting Josh Beckett, who had a tough adjustment to the American League in 2006. And yet if Beckett improves on last year, if he can return to his status as a number one-type starter, the Sox will have the best front-end rotation not only in the league, but arguably in recent history.

The recent move of last year's revelation, Jonathan Papelbon, back to the bullpen has marked one of the high points of the spring for most fans. Let me inject a note of contrarianism to the proceedings, however. The reason they shifted Paps back to the rotation was because after last year's shoulder subluxation the team's medical staff believed that it would be better for Papelbon's arm to have the regular routine of the starting rotation. What, other than the absence of a closer, has changed to make the medical realities shift? Naturally Red Sox Nation is trying to make a virtue of necessity, but the fact remains: There is no sound medical argument that contradicts what we heard after last season's ignominious end.

But furthermore: Starters are simply more valuable than closers. Top-of-the-rotation starters are much more important than closers. They work more innings, they work more high leverage innings, and they have a greater impact on the game. Closers can, in fact, be overrated. Now do not get me wrong -- teams want closers. But despite the high-profile nature of blown saves, most guys, even the most marginal, will convert most save opportunities. Plus, Papelbon's greatest strengths as a closer was that he reinvigorated a pre-Dennis Eckersley approach to shutting the door. In the late 1980s Tony LaRussa established a set role for Eckersley -- one-inning saves, with Eckersley coming in to close the game at the beginning of the 9th if at all possible. That approach revolutionized the role of the relief pitcher (and established the roles of set-up men in the process). And yet prior to Eckersley, great closers, guys like Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter, would routinely work more than one inning. Francona used Papelbon in an old-school way, and it worked. In their efforts to protect Pepelbon's arm, will the Sox no longer use him in the 8th if needed? Will they fear using him three days in a row if they have three close games in a row? And if so, doesn't that further reduce his effectiveness on top of the reduction that will come from going from starter to closer?

Papelbon's situation is the one that most concerns me entering this season. There are other questions, of course -- how will Jonathan Lester do in his return to being a starting pitcher after his apparently successful battle with cancer? Does Craig Hansen have the capacity to fulfill the promise we all believed he had (to be the closer, in fact) when he joined the Sox out of college? Can Drew stay healthy? Is Dustin Pedroia a legitimate Major League starter? Has Jason Varitek entered his period of decline, especially with the bat in his hands? Can Manny keep his Manny moments in the realm of the whimsical (stepping inside the Monster because he needs a pee) rather than the deleterious (taking crucial games off that happen to coincide with periods when he is feeling churlish about something or other)?

But every team has question marks entering a new season. My prevailing mood still is one of overwhelming optimism. This is going to be a very good Red Sox team. They can win the World Series. As a matter of fact, I am going to say that they will. (Given that I have predicted as much every year since I was old enough to predict such things, this should come as no surprise. Here is my take:

American League: Sox win the East, Detroit takes the Central, Oakland takes the West, and the Yankees edge out the Indians and Angels for the Wild Card. The Sox beat Oakland and the Tigers beat the Yankees in the divisional round, and the Sox take down the Tigers in the ALCS.

National League: The Mets take the East, the Cubs take the Central (I know -- I'm drinking the Cubbies/Lou Piniella Kool-Aid, but the Central is not that good and I think it will come down to the Brewers, Cardinals and the Cubbies) and the Dodgers the West. The Phillies and Braves will be in the hunt all year and one of them -- I say the Phillies -- will take the Wild Card. The Dodgers will take down the Phils, the Mets will beat the Cubs and then the Mets will beat the Dodgers to hoist the National League crown.

Sox take down the Mets in six games in the World Series. We have to see a nauseating number of shots of Bill Buckner but a glorious number of features on the 2004 ALCS.

In the meantime, Schilling gets the Royals today on ESPN. Play Ball!

NRO In The Hizzy!!!

I cannot access the original article because I am not a subscriber, but apparently Rich Lowry at The National Review has an article concluding that the Bush administration has an "incompetency problem." Rumor is that they also predict that the Red Sox will win the 2004 World Series, that "Google" is bound to be successful, and that Gigli might not be a hit with critics or the public. It's prescient stuff, and timely too! And, just for the record, I fully agree with them -- "New Coke" is a gamble that might turn into a national joke!

The Ides Of March: Madness!

The tournament is here. All the chatter gives way to Cinderella going to the dance, the top seeds showing their stuff, and four days that will eviscerate brackets across the land. Here is what my main bracket (Like everyone, I play different brackets in different competitions) looks like:

The Sweet 16:
Florida v. Maryland: Maryland will be feisty, but Florida is too talented.
Oregon v. Wisconsin: Oregon can shoot, but Wisconsin is tough and will have the best player on the court in Alando Tucker.
Kansas v. Southern Illinois: I really like SIU, and their team D is spectacular, but let's be serious. Kansas will run them out of the gym, but even if they can't, they will out-strong the Salukis.
Duke v. UCLA: I know everyone thinks Duke is going out early. Don't kid yourselves, Duke haters -- Duke may not be what they have been, but they will make it this far. Then they will lose to a UCLA team that got more rest than it wanted after their early loss to Cal in the Pac 10 tournament.
UNC-Chapel Hill v. Texas: The Tar Heels play a lot of good freshmen. Texas plays the best freshman. UNC-CH is soft. They are going to lose this one and it will not be that close.
Washington State v. Boston College: Hey, most of this will probably be wrong anyway, so I may as well be loyal. But I also think that if BC can pull it all together, they can play better than people realize. Dudley will have a monster game, especially down the stretch, even if he does look like Webster stricken by giantism.
Ohio State v. Virginia: I hate Ohio State. And I had a too-brief affiliation with UVA for a few months in 2004, so I want to tell you that Wahoo magic is about to bloom. But Oden will be too much, Virginia too little.
Texas A&M v. Nevada: In a good year for Texas college hoops (Texas Tech, North Texas and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi all made the big ho-down as well) A&M will be the second in the Elite 8, though Nevada is going to put up a fight.

Elite Eight:
Florida v. Wisconsin (Midwest Regional Final): I want to pick Wisconsin. But once Butch went down so too did their realistic national title hopes. they will punch Florida in the mouth, but the defending champs will prove to be too deep and too talented.
Kansas v. UCLA (West Regional Final): This will be the best game of all of the regional finals. Kansas is really, really good. UCLA is only really good. That one "really" will make the difference.
Texas v. BC (East Regional Final): I am loyal. But I am not a fool. Texas will pummel BC, but a Boston audience will get to see Kevin Durant and dream of him resplendant in green. Now if only Paul Pierce would get a five week "stomach virus" because he has chosen a hell of a bad time to prove that he is one of the ten best players in the NBA.
Ohio State v. Texas A&M (South Regional Final): Is it absurd that I am going to have three Big 12 teams in the Final Four? Probably. i tend to avoid cliches that people invoke to pick the national champion, but I'm going to pull one out now: When in doubt, look at the guards. I really like Conley for Ohio State, largely because his dad was a world class long and triple jumper back in the day. But Acie Law III is spectacular, he has enormous huevos, and he will take this game over in the last tem ninutes. Oden's going to be great, but the story in this one will be how Ohio State fought the Law (and Law won).

The Final Four:
Florida v Kansas: I have said all year that Florida would not repeat this year. They are a good team, but I just think that Kansas is better. Kansas has great balance and can play any sort of game. This could be a fantastic matchup, but Kansas will pull it off.
Texas v. Texas A&M: OK, so this matchup is farfetched. But this state will go absolutely insane if it comes to pass. My friend Brian will probably explode with his man-love for the Longhorns and his loathing of everything Aggie. A&M has the almost embarrassing coaching advantage with Gillespie over barnes in a walkover. But the Longhorns will have almost everything else, including, again, Kevin Durant, who will go for 30-15. Texas wins.

The National Championship:
Texas v. Kansas: These two teams have played two of the best college basketball games in 2007. In the Big 12 championship the Horns ran out of steam after three games in three days and could not forestall a Kansas comeback victory in overtime. There will be plenty of rest in between games this time around. The national title will reside deep in the heart of Texas for the next year.

Or none of this may come to pass. That is what makes March so glorious.

Super Bowl XLI

I'm heading out to watch the Super Bowl in just a few minutes. I must admit, my interest in this game is at an all-time low. Surely that is due in huge part to the letdown over the Pats not being involved, but there are other factors as well. Nonetheless, I will put forth a tentative pick for the game.

It's rare that the team with both the best defense and the best running game would be an underdog, especially inasmuch as they are playing an opponent that has a history of choking in big games. It is especially rare for that team to be a 7 point underdog. Nonetheless, these are the circumstances the Bears will face as they take the field in Miami today. And naturally, taking a cue from the Patriots of recent years, the Bears are playing that disrespect element up just as much as possible. The question is, will it matter?

My head says no. My head says that Peyton Manning has climbed the mountain, that he has too many weapons, and that he will have so many weapons at his disposal that he will neutralize the aggressiveness of the Bears' D. Furthermore, the Bears got pasted whenever they ran up against even middle-shelf AFC competition. There is a reason why Vegas has given the game a relatively wide line, right? Surely, the smart line of thinking goes, the Colts are going to win, but the question is by how much.

Then there is my gut. My gut may not be smart, but it is intuitive. And my gut says that the Colts have crested, the Bears will come out gnashing their teeth, and Peytom Manning will find a way to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. The supposedly rejuvenated Colts D were a huge part of why the Pats scored 34 points in the AFC championship, and the Bears come forward with a two-headed thunder and more thunder running combo that will wear the Colts down. Of course the Bears have Rex Grossman, but while Grossman is no superstar, it is my firm belief that he can manage a game well enough to keep the Bears in the contest. Grossman does not need to be perfect, and knowing as much should allow him to be good.

So the question becomes the Adam Vinatieri factor: Not what sort of difference the greatest kicker of all time will make, so much as whether or not the game will come down to his pressure-tempered right leg. As Patriots fan I really do not want to think of that prospect. But on this question my head and my guts are working in tandem. My head says that the odds of Vinatieri having yet another shot at a Super Bowl winning kick are too improbable. And my guts say that the Bears are going to keep in just out of range in the end.

Maybe it's wishful thinking. maybe it is post-AFC Championship sour grapes. Maybe it is just the matter of me wanting to be contrarian. Whatever the motivation, I see it ending Bears 34-Colts 30.