Dirty Water: Sox Talk With the Thunderstick, Postseason Edition

Baseball has the longest season of any American team sport that matters, with the most games, and thus the ups and downs can cloud the average fan's judgment. I look at this past season and there seemed like a great deal of regular season angst. And yet when all was said and done, the Sox finished tied for the best record in baseball and won the tiebreaker. They won the division over the Yankees and are the top seed going into the postseason. The Red Sox had a pretty damned good year, and yet looking back over the last six months, I feel as if we were constantly bitching about them. But now the slate is wiped clean and we face a race to win eleven games. First team to do so is crowned champion. So without further intro, let's get down to the first postseason installment of Dirty Water, in which the Thunderstick and I talk Sox.

Thunderstick: Well, it's the eve of the ALDS and we're patiently waiting to see the AL East champion Boston Red Sox take the field. We've had several discussions about this the last week as winning the AL East clearly meant more to you than it did to me. I'm glad they were able to do it. I'm glad we're able not to have to listen to all the AL East titles in a row that the Yanks have won. But really I'm not sure it means all that much anymore. It's a nice achievement but as I think Bob Ryan said last week, what seemed acutely important last week really doesn't mean much now at all. So let's get to playoff time.

I like the matchup with Anaheim. We've played well against them this year and they aren't exactly coming in the most healthy they've been all year. Clearly there are concerns--it's not like any of our starters have been lights out. Pap gave up a save or two towards the end of the year. The hitting comes and goes. But if there's one thing we've learned from the last few years, the regular season goes out the window and all that really matter is getting hot. St. Louis won it all with 83 wins last year when they got hot. Detroit fell apart last year and lost the AL Central on the last day and yet made it to the World Series. We just gotta hope they are ready to go. There isn't one team in the playoffs that would surprise me if they win it all. But taking out the inevitability that someone gets hot, here are my predictions:

Sox/Angels--Beckett gets it done in game 1. Dice has one bad inning that sinks him in game 2 but Schil comes back with a big outing in Game 3 and Beckett sews it up in game 4 as the Angels are just too dinged up to hang the whole way through.

Cleveland/NY--I love Sabathia for two games. I love Carmona for one. I love the Tribe's chances of winning either game 3 or 4 against a hurting Clemens or an aging Mussina, as well as he's pitched lately. Cleveland gets it done here and loses to the Sox in the ALCS (the Tribe is still a young team and are a year away still from breaking Cleveland fans' hearts by losing in the World Series--that'll be in the next year or two).

Philly/Colorado, Zona/Cubs--I see Philly and the Cubs getting through. I have no reason for this. I know little about National League baseball. But I just foresee one of these tortured fan bases having a year where they get their hopes up--Philly to finally see a title in their city for the first time since Dr. J, or the Cubs to break that long streak. Someone's going to get a fun ride to the World Series before getting wiped out by Cleveland or the Sox in 5.

dcat: It's go time. Let's get ready to rumble. Play Ball! Whatever your cliche, it's all built up to this, and as always at this time of year when the Sox are involved, I'm gearing up for a month of my stomach churning, of anxiety, of nailbiting, of swearing unbelievably crass expletives at Tim McCarver, of anticipation. I love this time of year.

As you mentioned, I do believe that winning the division mattered. I do think that ending up with the best record mattered. I know that home field or winning the division has been far from a guarantee of long-range success, but I think it is too easy to confuse causation and correlation when it comes to the relative paucity of success of home teams and division winners. For a team built to win in the postseason, there is still a great deal to be gained from winning the division and from getting to play the extra game, and the last game, at home, and in our case in the Friendly Confines. And this year we had the added ability to set the schedule and thus the number of days off. With Waker apparently suffering from back woes and thus not good to go in this first series, I am glad we eked out the best record over the Indians.

Naturally I predict only good things for the Sox. If there is ever a time when one is allowed to choose heart over head, this is the year. We are going to beat the Angels, and then we are going to end up facing the Yankees. Because that's what God wants. I like the Indians, and for two years now have been saying that they are on the cusp. And their top two starters are as good as any in the league. But the Yankees are simply death on inexperienced postseason pitchers and teams. That lineup is going to take pitches and battle and foul balls off and go deep into counts. And I think they will be able to score enough that the Indians won't be able to match it. Hafner is dangerous and scary good (though I bet the Indians would like to see the Hafner from the first 2/3 of 2006 right now) but from top to bottom that might be the least scary lineup of the eight playoff teams. it certainly does not match up, at least on paper, to the rest of the AL clubs. I'd as soon be wrong -- I'd love to see the Indians take out the Yankees, but I also suspect that once again we are on a collision course with the crapweasels from the Bronx.

In the National League, I am selfish. easily the teams the rest of the country does not want to see are the Rockies and the D-Backs. But both Denver and Phoenix are within (long) driving range of Odessa. Chicago and Philly are not, and in any case, the odds of getting Cubbies World series tickets are about what they would be in Boston. I want to see the Sox this postseason. My odds increase substantially if Arizona and Colorado meet in the NLCS. (My head thinks the somewhat more rested Phillies will be too much for a game Rockies team that gave its all last night and that the DBacks will break the hearts of Cubs fans.) But in any case, there is no interest like self interest: Sox-DBacks, and Jaime, if you're reading -- get ready, because dcat's coming to town.