Friday, April 21, 2006
Ohio Politics Watch
Today's New York Times covers the fascinating gubernatorial race playing out in Ohio. Very much appearing like one of the "Purple States" that increasingly give the lie to the Red State-Blue State division supposedly tearing America in two, Ohioans appear set to face a choice between a black Republican (Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell is the frontrunner in what has been a vitriolic Republican primary campaign) and Democratic frontrunner Ted Strickland, who has for six terms represented the Congressional district in which Ohio University is located. Ohio is very much in play for the Democrats, who could benefit from rife corruption by state Republicans, the rapid loss of manufacturing jobs, commensurate population and brain drain, disenchantment with the presidential administration, and Iraq fatigue. Already the campaign is shaping up to look like something from the Progressive era, with each candidate fighting to position himself as the more active proponent of reform. The Ohio race bears watching because it could signal just how much Americans desire change.
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8 comments:
Not to quibble and it would be interesting if your prediction on Ohio being a signal state happens to be right, but has this ever been the case over there? Last major factor they played in national politics was providing a crucial and decisive, razor-thin lead needed by the Bush campaign, whose subsequent re-election and tenure has turned out to be anything but well-regarded nationally.
I think the increasingly lukewarm nature of both sides in their support for their leadership is one of the most overlooked trends today. I'd guess that's due to the polarization that's facilitated both sides having to play so much defense - leaving little room for wanting to provide the optimism so needed in American politics (Democrats) or little room for anyone else to believe it when it comes from Bush. I think it'll take a powerfully charismatic, credible personality to drive the next era of American political history, moreso than any specific policy stances or appeals to disparate grass-roots interests, as progressive as some might see themselves to be.
MUL --
Hasn't the saying always been "as Ohio goes, so goes the nation"? I know Maine has said similar things as well. Probably others too.
You are probably right that I may be presuming too much in terms of believing that a gubernatorial contest can signal or forecast larger trends, but Ohio strikes me as one of these states that could provide a sense of which way the wind is blowing. It is a midwestern state that is nonetheless in close enough proximity to the South and the eastern media to serve as some sort of guage. Ohioans tend to be pretty centrist, so which way their centrist goes may well show how other purple states might twist.
But your healthy skepticism may be warranted -- the Ohio governor's race might just be in and of itself interesting but indicative of nothing larger. The good thing is that no one will remember this post. Or, if we see in the Times in October how Ohio was the key to the race, I can feign indignance about my overlooked genius.
dcat
I thought the trendsetter was California. But Ohio does have Drew Carey inviting us to keep our eyes on "all the little chicks with crimson lips..." or something.
Interesting point on its geographical proximity to both the South and Northeast; never thought about the state's politics through that lens.
MUL --
I'll admit, the geographic idea came to me on the fly yesterday. It seems to hold tyrue -- in Athens, Ohio the locals have a twang that is distinctly Southern, and Cincinnati is as much a southern as a northern city in many significant ways. Cleveland, meanwhile, feels quite a lot like a more mellow version of an eastern city, a lot like Pittsburgh (sorry Tom and Don) or Buffalo. Columbus in a lot of ways feels the most midwesternm -- like Indianapolis. And so the state is a microcosm of intersecting currents.
I'm not sure California can qualify -- at least for now in presidential races it is pretty locked in to the Dems, though that, like anything in politics, could change before we know it. But byinvoking California you present another possibility -- that there are in fact lots of states that might tell us something about where we are, where we have been, and where we are going. Even in Texas there are pockets of both discontent and transformation. Texas may be a red state, but it is a red state with a blue-state view on immigration, for example, and depending on if Mexican Americanbs mobilize for Democrats by significant majorities, Texas could easily be in play in 5, 10, 20 years.
dcat
It's funny that while neither party has a monopoly on the nativist vote, they seem to split down the immigration line for different reasons.
Even so, I'd be happy to see the Democrats edge out - whether by default of perception or whatever - on this issue, even if only because it's been astounding to have to witness how much the administration is continually allowed to squander. In that sense, although I think Bill Maher's losing his mind these days, I'm starting to come around to his perspective of wanting to see whatever it takes for this administration and their peanut gallery to feel some kind of pain. They seem impervious to learning any kind of the legitimate political lessons necessary for real leadership, and this delusional if stable aura of invincibility they've been running with is really starting to make the process much more boring than I'm used to seeing it.
Also, it's not an uncommon idea in American politics that Californians have come to resent the perception of Texas having replaced them as a current focus of political momentum and leadership. I guess I'll have to pay more attention to how issues are working out down that way. Since districting's a huge issue though, it's interesting to keep in mind the distinctions of local flavor within parts of Ohio that certainly are, as you mention, (at least culturally) a representative microchasm of the geographical divisions of attitudes on a larger, more national scale.
MUL --
These trends change of course. And I'm not sure just how thrilled texans are to be at the center of some of the political debates/storms roiling right now.
From this vantage point this race looks like it will be close enough that paying attention to as many different places as possible may well be necessary even if it is next to impossible to understand politics comprehensively at the sub-national level.
dcat
MUL --
On immigration, I think that both parties will have things that can appeal, but at least right now, I'd say that democrats are in the catbird seat in terms of appealing to immigrants and minorities who come from immigrant stock. You are right -- neither party lacks its nativist demagogues, and there are lots of Republicans on what I see as the correct side of this issue, I still think that the Dems are poised to renew their coalition based on disproportionate republican commandeering of this debate in ways that most mexican Americans may well resent.
I also agree with the sentiment that at some point, the Republican jig will be up. It may come in this election cycle. But counting them out at this point would be unwise -- November is still a long way out.
dcat
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