Winning the Republican primary for the governorship in Nebraska today is like winning a Democratic primary in the South in the century after the Civil War: It was the only competition that mattered even if a putatively bigger one follows. The race for the Cornhusker State's chief exacutive office is especially fascinating this year, pitting as it does incumbent Governor Dave Heineman against state icon and former Big Red football coach-turned Congressman Tom Osborne. For a year or so now, the presupposition has been that Osborne would wipe the floor with Heineman. But as Lee Corso might say in evaluating an event in Osborne's past career, "Not so fast, my friend." According to Chris Cilizza's
Washington Post blog
"The Fix," the race is now in a dead heat with two weeks to go before the primary.
There is lots of time, though I think people need to cease with the football metaphors, especially in assessing the last weeks of the race. If Osborne wins, it will not be, as one analyst says, because he had close calls in his former job and knows how to win. I'm as big a sports fan as they come, but let's not pretend that politicians need to learn any lessons about competition from football coaches. Osborne may win a popularity contest. He may win because the voters trust him more. He may win because of America's moronic attachment to celebrity. He may win because he is the best man for the job. He is not going to win because his competitive skills are more finely honed than the sitting Governor's.
8 comments:
Derek, what you don't understand is that sometimes, when the clock is running down in life, you have to know when to take a shot down the field or when to kneel on the ball. You have to know when to throw that hail mary or just run it up the middle. Sometimes you punt; sometimes you go for it.
It's down in the trenches, when the pressure is on, that separates the men from the boys. Right now Coach Osborne is in a tight game that is coming down to the wire. When it's fourth down and goal to go, he'll know what to do.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
Win one for the Gipper!
Cancer!
dcat
It was in fact those years reporting from the touchlines in Monday Night Football that could win the thing for Lynn Swan
Oh, don't get me wrong -- a high-profile sporting background can be an immense help. Is there really any way that Steve Largent, Tom Osborne or Jim Bunning become successful politicians without those backgrounds? But at a certain point, that tends to diminish in significance. It may get you a House seat, but oftentimes the less parochial the seat, the more people want substance, qualifications, things like that.
dcat
Just because he's an icon what does Osborne bring to the governor's desk that we haven't already seen in his congressional tenure? The district is still losing population and in his Congressional capacity, he's always said that Nebraska has so many benefits and is a great place to live...now he's citing statistics that we're the 8th highest taxed state, state spending is up, etc. (no source given on the tv ad for that comment). Why shouldn't Heineman be given a fair opportunity to let his leadership style be developed? He's doing a good job so far!
These are good points, and reveal, among other things the opportunism inherent in running for office. In order for Osborne to be successful he has to paint a grim picture that before now would have been uncharacteristic of him because his whole schtick has been to be cheery and to ride the wave of popularity. Now that his race looks not to be a cakewalk, he has to go on the offensive. This is what makes primaries so interesting -- the warfare is internecine; then in a few months, the party will make nice again but these issues will continue to lie beneath the surface. Ain't politics grand?
dcat
Now that the primary is over, what were your thoughts on Osborne's concession speech? Seemed to have a bitter undertone and I've heard more than one say that they have lost respect for him for the manner in which he conceded. I don't know if you saw the county by county poll tally - but he only carried 18 counties out of the 93. Perhaps the popularity factor was dustier than thought? There's a whole new generation of people that don't remember him as a 3 time national championship coach.
Good questions and good points. I have only read about the speecj, I did not actually read or hear it. I think I can discount something said so soon after the ehat of battle. As you say, he lost pretty handily across the board, which should alleviate his angst. people have either forgotten, or, to give nebraskans credit, simply saw the three championships as irrelevant. Osborne still has a place at the table in Cornhusker State politics, just perhaps not what he hoped.
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