I'm heading out to watch the Super Bowl in just a few minutes. I must admit, my interest in this game is at an all-time low. Surely that is due in huge part to the letdown over the Pats not being involved, but there are other factors as well. Nonetheless, I will put forth a tentative pick for the game.
It's rare that the team with both the best defense and the best running game would be an underdog, especially inasmuch as they are playing an opponent that has a history of choking in big games. It is especially rare for that team to be a 7 point underdog. Nonetheless, these are the circumstances the Bears will face as they take the field in Miami today. And naturally, taking a cue from the Patriots of recent years, the Bears are playing that disrespect element up just as much as possible. The question is, will it matter?
My head says no. My head says that Peyton Manning has climbed the mountain, that he has too many weapons, and that he will have so many weapons at his disposal that he will neutralize the aggressiveness of the Bears' D. Furthermore, the Bears got pasted whenever they ran up against even middle-shelf AFC competition. There is a reason why Vegas has given the game a relatively wide line, right? Surely, the smart line of thinking goes, the Colts are going to win, but the question is by how much.
Then there is my gut. My gut may not be smart, but it is intuitive. And my gut says that the Colts have crested, the Bears will come out gnashing their teeth, and Peytom Manning will find a way to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. The supposedly rejuvenated Colts D were a huge part of why the Pats scored 34 points in the AFC championship, and the Bears come forward with a two-headed thunder and more thunder running combo that will wear the Colts down. Of course the Bears have Rex Grossman, but while Grossman is no superstar, it is my firm belief that he can manage a game well enough to keep the Bears in the contest. Grossman does not need to be perfect, and knowing as much should allow him to be good.
So the question becomes the Adam Vinatieri factor: Not what sort of difference the greatest kicker of all time will make, so much as whether or not the game will come down to his pressure-tempered right leg. As Patriots fan I really do not want to think of that prospect. But on this question my head and my guts are working in tandem. My head says that the odds of Vinatieri having yet another shot at a Super Bowl winning kick are too improbable. And my guts say that the Bears are going to keep in just out of range in the end.
Maybe it's wishful thinking. maybe it is post-AFC Championship sour grapes. Maybe it is just the matter of me wanting to be contrarian. Whatever the motivation, I see it ending Bears 34-Colts 30.