Friday Sox Report: Opening Day Edition

I think I'll try to do a weekly update on the Red Sox this year. We'll see how long I stick with it.

It's Opening Day (Opening Day for me is when the Sox first toss the ball out there for real) and there is much reason for optimism in Red Sox Nation. Despite the fact that lots of people are picking the Sox to do well (usually enough to give pause -- how often is that consensus right?) I am going to agree with them simply because Boston experienced a horrid season of injuries last year and still finished up with 89 wins and were in the running with a week or so to go in the season. Assuming that last year was an outlier -- Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Martinez and Cameron missed an average of 88 games to injury last year and much of the pitching staff spent time on the DL.

And if reverting to something resembling a mean on the disabled list would be enough to inspire optimism, the offseason signings of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzales should be enough to have warmed even the frostiest heart. Gonzales is going to mash in Fenway. He was a stud in San Diego, and PETCO is the worst hitter's park in the game. Crawford meanwhile steps into a better lineup in Boston and is just reaching what should be his peak years. The irony of last year's team is that while they went in preaching the virtues of defense, with cynics wondering where the offense would come from, they ended up having an incredibly potent offense despite some of the lineups Tito was forced to put out there and despite their supposedly weakened situation. This year's team could conceivably bring the team back to its 2003-2005 offensive apex when they were historically good.

The biggest concern is likely with pitcing depth both in the starting rotation and at the back end in the bullpen. In the pen papelbon had his worst year last year and every save opportunity seemd like a misadventure, even when he prevailed. Fortunately Paps is in his contract year, so he has every reason to excel, and they have Daniel Bard and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks in the wings. Barring some sort of epic season from Papelbon this is likely his last year in a Sox uniform as it would be uncharacteristic of Theo and the rest of management to break the bank for a closer.

On paper the starting rotation looks as if it could be exceptional. but there are some cracks. Lester and Buchholz should continue to improve, though whether they will be top-5 in the Cy Young voting good again remains to be seen. But Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, and John Lackey all disappointed last year. For all of DiceK's potential he is simply maddening, nibbling rather than being aggressive, and as a consequence rarely getting much past the 5th inning. there have been some promising signs this spring (and last fall) but most Sox fans need to see progress when it counts to believe it. Beckett too has been frustrating since his first couple of years in uniform, putting up mediocre numbers and having a hard time avoiding injuries great and small. It felt like a panic move when they extended him last year when he was struggling. He needs a big year to validate the contract and to avoid being the priciest fifth starter in baseball. Lackey too disappointed, though as the season progressed he seemed to get a bit better. Maybe the pressure of the first year in a Sox uniform got to him. Whatever it was, he needs to improve. Ageless knuckleballer Tim Wakefield returns as well but he is at the stage in his career where he is better seen as a stopgap than a regular starter, though reports of his demise have proven premature in the past.

The season starts against Texas, here in the Lone Star State, and were it not for an unfortunate foot injury that's kept me on my own version of the DL the last ten days I'd be getting up there this weekend. But I'll be watching here at home and obviously will hope that the Red Sox get out of the gate strong and keep it rolling. Once again the AL East will be beastly. The Blue Jays and Orioles are no slouches. It seems a long time since Tampa was a laughingstock and even after some of their offseason losses have likely become "perennial" contenders, though they have to hope they continue to replicate their farm system success. Then there are the Yankees. I suspect that they have loved being discounted by just about every pundit. yes, they did not have the offseason they had hoped for, largely because they put all of their eggs in the Cliff Lee basket and they never hatched. but something tells me that the demise of the Yankees has been greatly exaggerated. they will be there in September when postseason berths are being allotted.

Opening Day!!!!!!!!!!

Today (or tomorrow -- see the next paragraph) should be a national holiday. And were I king of the world (someday, someday) enacting such a festive respite in honor of the start of baseball would be one of the first pronouncements I would make, alongside establishing the global fashion police (hey you, Fatty, where you think you're going in that spandex? Walk back into the house slowly and no one gets hurt . . .) and establishing a college football playoff system. And I know there was baseball played last night, a blasphemy that too would be done with the stroke of a pen in my enlightened despotism.

The Red Sox were scheduled to be on national television today, but because of frightful April weather in Boston, the game has been postponed to tomorrow. Which brings me to the question of what the hell the Sox and Rays are doing kicking off in Boston in early April when both teams just left Florida, where the Rays play in an indoor facility. I love Fenway, I love baseball, and I love Opening Day, but Fenway in early April can be frigid, and if it is wet it can be utterly miserable. Why not play this series in St. Pete and open at Fenway in a couple of weeks? 'Twould be done in dcat's world (admit it -- you're growing warm to the idea of my benevolent dictatorship).

Here are my perfunctory predictions for the season:

American League:

AL East: (Predicted order of finish; * denotes predicted Wild Card berth) Red Sox, *Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays (In the best division in baseball, maybe in baseball history, three teams will win 90 games and the fifth-place team will be fighting for a .500 record through September.)

AL Central: Indians, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals (The Indians will rebound to win a stunningly mediocre division.)

AL West: Angels, Rangers, A's, Mariners (Also mediocre, but more competitive, one of the stories in the West will be the Rangers finally having some good young pitching to go with a team that can always hit. Still, at least for this year, the Angels will continue to be the class of the division.)

National League:

NL East: Mets, *Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals (It is fun watching the Mets collapse, but they have strengthened their bullpen and should win the East, though Philadelphia is not going to give up the crown all that easily.)

NL Central: Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Astros, Pirates (Why in the hell does the NL Cantral have six teams while the AL West has four? This has always annoyed me. My benign autocracy will shift one of these teams to the American league -- welcome back Milwaukee!

NL West: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Giants, Padres (Manny really is a difference maker. This should be a good race to the end, though, and the Diamondbacks could pull it out.)

Postseason:
ALDS: Sox over Indians; Angels over Rays

NLDS: Cubs over Phillies; Mets over Dodgers

ALCS: Sox over Angels (Again.)

NLCS: Cubs over Mets (hey, one of these years this much-anticipated matchup is going to happen)

World Series: Sox over Cubs in six. (What, you thought I was going in another direction? The Sox both have my blind loyalty and a hell of a team. The pitching staff, starters to back of the pen, could be other-worldly and the lineup will have its usual stellar season. That's a nice combination.)

Play Ball!!! (Tomorrow!)